337
FXUS01 KWBC 021959
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 03 2026 - 00Z Mon Oct 05 2026

...Excessive rainfall threat shifts into the Southeast and Gulf
Coast this weekend...

...Long duration October heatwave builds across central and
southern California...


A wet weather pattern lingering across the Southern Plains will
gradually shift eastward into the Gulf Coast and the Southeast
this weekend as an anomalous October heatwave builds across the
western U.S. This pattern will deliver another day of moderate to
heavy rainfall near a stationary front across eastern Texas to
eastern Oklahoma where the Weather Prediction Center maintains a
slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall for
tonight. Thereafter, a tropical wave moving westward through the
Caribbean will bring increasingly unsettled weather through the
Gulf during the weekend, with showers and embedded thunderstorms
lingering along the Gulf Coast where as much as a few inches of
rainfall totals can be expected near the immediate coast. Moisture
associated with this tropical wave will linger and interact with
the synoptic slowly moving across the Southeast. This interaction
will produce additional thunderstorm activity with potential
excessive rainfall concerns in the Southeast. Another slight risk
is in effect for an area extending form the Central Gulf Coast to
the Southeast Coast for Sunday. Meanwhile, a low pressure system
will sweep across the northern tier bringing scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Saturday into Sunday morning.

As the wet pattern persist across the South, an anomalous ridge of
high pressure will help build a late season October heatwave
across the western U.S. through the weekend. Heat advisories and
excessive heat warnings are in effect for portions of central and
southern California. Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day of
the period, running 15 to 20 degrees above normal, pushing coastal
areas well into the 90s and valleys as high as 107F. Warm nights
will provide minimal relief. The heat will then expand further
northeast during the weekend, with high temperatures 80s and near
90 degrees emerging across the Great Basin. Extreme heat warnings
are in effect for much of coastal southern California, while heat
advisories are in effect for central California. Elsewhere, clear
conditions with high pressure overhead could lead to another
evening of frost and freezing conditions over portions of northern
Wisconsin and Michigan tonight.


Kebede/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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