707
FXUS01 KWBC 291910
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Jul 30 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 01 2026

...Significant flash flooding possible in New England through
tonight...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible from the
Plains into the Midwest through Friday...

...Dangerous heat continues for the South and expands into the
Southwest, Intermountain West, and northern High Plains late this
week into this weekend...

A deepening low pressure system will slowly track along the New
England coast through Thursday, resulting in continued
precipitation chances across the Northeast. Anomalous moisture and
increased convergence across the region will support very heavy
rainfall through tonight, which may lead to significant flash
flooding for portions of New England. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4)
of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of southeastern
New York, northwestern Connecticut, western Massachusetts, and
southern Vermont where the heaviest rainfall totals are expected.
Rainfall will begin to taper off across the Northeast on Thursday
as the system pulls away from the region, but lingering showers
may result in isolated flash flooding concerns.

The trailing cold front associated with the Northeast low pressure
system will extend back into the Southeast and southern Plains
where it will remain quasi-stationary through Thursday. This
frontal boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms
across these regions, and isolated to scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain across the Southeast.
Late Thursday into Friday, this boundary will lift towards the
Mid-Mississippi Valley as a low pressure system strengthens in the
lee of the Rockies and pushes east. This will result in increasing
precipitation chances across the Mississippi Valley and Midwest
late this week into the weekend, with scattered severe
thunderstorms possible across the northern/central Plains on
Thursday and scattered instances of flash flooding possible for
the northern/central Plains and Midwest on Thursday and Friday.

Precipitation chances will also be present across the Southwest
where an active monsoonal pattern will continue to bring afternoon
and evening thunderstorms for the Four Corners, Rockies, and High
Plains. Slow storm motion and elevated rainfall rates will support
localized flash flooding, especially over burn scars, slot
canyons, and vulnerable terrain. There is a Marginal Risk (level
1/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of these regions through
Saturday. A smaller Slight Risk (level 2/4) is in place over
portions of Colorado through tonight where convection may be
enhanced in the vicinity of a low pressure center.

Across the northern tier, a frontal boundary will sink south
across the Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight.
An upper level disturbance will track along the boundary this
evening, which will support scattered severe thunderstorms across
the northern High Plains. On Thursday, the frontal boundary will
become stationary across the Northwest but continue to move east
across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. The western side
of the boundary is expected to lift north ahead of a Pacific
frontal system that will onshore late Friday night into Saturday
morning.

Dangerous heat will continue across the southern U.S. as upper
ridging remains in place, bringing above normal temperatures
through the remainder of the week. Afternoon highs are expected to
reach mid-to-upper 90s across the region, with highs into the low
100s for portions of the southern Plains. Heat indices will reach
105 to 115 degrees, resulting in widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk levels that will be hazardous to anyone without adequate
cooling or hydration. The heat will expand into the Southwest and
portions of the Intermountain West Thursday into Friday, and into
the northern High Plains by Saturday. Widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk values are expected across these regions this weekend.


Dolan/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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