346
FXUS01 KWBC 110745
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 11 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 13 2026

...Mid-summer heat persists from the Central Plains to the
Southeast; cooler temperatures to overspread the Intermountain
West and Northern Plains this week...

...Severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall threats continue across
the Midwest, Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, with a hail
threat over the Northern High Plains over the next couple of
days...

Over the next two days, a broad mid-level ridge over the Four
Corners is forecast to migrate eastward toward the mid-Mississippi
Valley as shortwave troughing overtakes the West Coast. This
pattern will maintain hot weather from the Central Plains to the
Southeast this week, while a cooling trend sets in across the West
and Northern Plains. A few high temperature records remain
possible in the Central High Plains and Southeast as temperatures
stay in the upper 90s and triple digits where widespread Heat
Advisories are in effect. In contrast, high temperatures are
forecast to fall 10-20 degrees west of the Continental Divide by
Thursday as a front begins to overtake the region while cloud and
precipitation coverage increases. Some of these showers and
thunderstorms will will pose a threat for heavy rainfall and flash
flooding, especially across southern Arizona over the next couple
of days where a Slight Risk of flash flooding is anticipated.

Meanwhile, a frontal boundary meandering across the north-central
U.S. will keep the focus for thunderstorms and attendant heavy
rainfall across the Midwest, lower Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley
over the next few days. For today, we are particularly concerned
about the Ohio Valley for impactful flash flooding as another 2-4"
of rain falls near an area inundated from the previous day of
flash flooding. An active day for severe weather is also
anticipated across northern Illinois and the Ohio Valley primarily
for damaging wind gusts. The heavy rain threat is forecast to
continue on Wednesday along this corridor, although the severe
storm chances should be less prominent. Over the Northern High
Plains, daily chances of scattered severe weather and isolated
heavy rainfall will remain in the vicinity of a stationary front
and weak low pressure wave.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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