056
FXUS01 KWBC 150734
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 15 2025 - 12Z Mon Nov 17 2025

...Additional heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and
debris flows possible
for parts of Southern California today...

...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth today across the
Central/Southern Plains and the Midwest today, continuing across
the Southern Plains through early next week...

...Wintry mix across northern New York and New England, with
several inches of snow in the higher elevations late today into
Sunday...

An atmospheric river event associated with a slow-moving low
moving toward the coast will continue to impact Southern and
Central California today.  Additional heavy rainfall, producing
numerous flash floods and debris flows remain the primary concern,
especially for burn scar and other vulnerable areas in Los
Angeles, Santa Barbara, and Ventura counties.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Moderate Risk
(Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall, the second-highest
category, centered over coastal Southern California. An anomalous
surge of subtropical moisture and strong onshore winds will
support additional heavy rainfall along the Transverse Ranges.
Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected over the
next 24 hours, pushing storm totals to over 6 inches in some
locations.

The main axis of heavy rainfall will slowly begin to shift east
and subside late tonight as the upper-level low weakens and tracks
inland, spreading widespread precipitation across the Great Basin,
the Southwest, and then the central and southern Rockies late
today and Sunday. However, the active pattern over the Pacific
will quickly deliver a second system that will track into Central
and Northern California beginning late Sunday and continuing into
Monday. While moisture values are expected to be lower, this next
system will bring additional rounds of precipitation, renewing the
threat for at least isolated flooding concerns.  This second
system will also usher in colder air, driving snow levels down
significantly over the Northern Sierra Nevada by Monday morning.

Further east, a large area of unseasonably warm air remains out
ahead of a strong cold front moving through the central and
eastern U.S. Afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s will extend from
the Central and Southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and the
Southeast. Temperatures will top out more than 20 degrees above
normal across portions of the Central and Southern Plains and the
Midwest, setting numerous daily records across the region.

The previously noted cold front will push south across the Central
Plains and east across the Midwest today, before reaching the
Northeast and the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, bringing cooler
temperatures back into those areas.  Conversely, well above-normal
to record-breaking temperatures are expected to persist over the
Southern Plains into early next week as the front begins to stall.

An area of low pressure is forecast to strengthen over the Great
Lakes today and then track into the Northeast on Sunday. Ahead of
this system, a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is
expected to develop over portions of northern New York and New
England by the late afternoon and continue into Sunday, with
several inches of accumulating snow likely in some of the higher
elevations. As the system lifts out into the Canadian Maritimes
late Sunday, cold, gusty air spreading south in its wake will
produce the next chance for organized, lake effect snow showers
downwind of the Great Lakes.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$