101
FXUS01 KWBC 070806
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 09 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the northern
Rockies and the northern Plains, with heavy rain threat across
northwestern Montana today, followed by strong thunderstorms
across the north-central Plains Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler
air expands further into the West Coast and eastern U.S....

...Scattered thunderstorms linger across the Southeast...

As a large high-pressure system brings fine and cool weather
across the Great Lakes and the Northeast this Labor Day, a
low-pressure system is spreading unsettled weather into the
northern Rockies and the northern Plains. This is in response to a
deep upper-level low getting ready to eject out of the northern
Rockies toward southern Canada. Strong dynamics associated with
this weather system will bring scattered to widespread strong to
severe thunderstorms across the northern Rockies to the northern
Plains as today progresses.  The low-pressure system is forecast
to intensify and move into the southern prairies of Canada by
tonight, but the potent cold front trailing from the low center
will bring a round of strong to severe thunderstorms as the front
sweeps through the northern Plains today, reaching into the upper
Midwest tonight. By Tuesday, the southern portion of the front
will lose some momentum, allowing showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the north-central Plains and advance gradually into
the upper Midwest by Wednesday morning. WPC is now highlighting a
slight risk of excessive rainfall across Iowa Tuesday to early
Wednesday. In addition, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is
maintained across northwestern Montana for today.

As the cool high pressure system continues to expand southward
into the eastern U.S. and encounters the heat dome anchoring over
the country`s midsection, the frontal boundary will eventually
stall before reaching the Gulf Coast. This pattern will allow
scattered thunderstorms to linger across the Southeast, including
the Sunshine State, through the next few days. Meanwhile, much of
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will enjoy a break from the heat as
high temperatures only reach into the mid-70s and low-80s for the
next couple of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and
50s will bring a first taste of Fall across New England, with a
reinforcing surge of cool air reaching northern Maine Wednesday
morning.

Below normal temperatures beneath the upper low will expand across
the West for the remainder of this weekend into the new week as
daytime highs dip 10 to 25 degrees below normal, except for much
of the Four Corners region. In fact, below-freezing morning
temperatures are expected across the higher elevations as far
south as northern California and the Sierra Nevada peaks.
Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in the
Nation`s Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the
nation`s midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record
warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the
Central/Southern Plains States and Mississippi Valley through
today and into the work week. See WPC`s Key Messages for more
information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if
possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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