236
FXUS01 KWBC 221950
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
349 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 00Z Thu May 23 2024 - 00Z Sat May 25 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern Plains/ Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and
over parts of the Central Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and
Thursday...

...Heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies
on Wednesday evening into Thursday...

On Wednesday evening, a front over the Northern Intermountain
Region to the Great Basin will advance to the Northern/Central
Plains into the Central Rockies by Thursday. The system will
produce rain and higher-elevation snow over the Northern Cascades.
As the boundary moves farther eastward, the snow levels will
lower, producing snow over the Northern Intermountain Region
overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The system will produce heavy
snow at the higher elevations of the Northern Rockies through
Thursday, and the snow will end overnight Thursday.

In addition, another front extending from the Lower Great Lakes
southwestward to the Southern High Plains will move eastward to
the Northeast Coast by Thursday evening. On Thursday, the southern
half of the boundary moves northward as a warm front over the
Southern Plains.

The front will fire showers and severe thunderstorms from western
New York to the Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains through Thursday
morning. The potential hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. There will be the added threat of rain, two
inches or greater, over parts of the area.

Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will cause heavy rain
to develop over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

On Thursday, as the front from the Northwest moves out of the
Rockies, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over most of the Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore,
the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains from Thursday into
Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and
a few tornadoes. In addition, there will be an added threat of
severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the
region. Furthermore, there will be another region of an increased
threat of hail, two inches or greater, over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains.

Moreover, some showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southern
Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive
rainfall decreases slightly as the boundary moves into the
Mississippi Valley.  Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk
(level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Western Ohio
Valley and Middle Lower Mississippi. The hazards associated with
these strong to severe thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Similarly, the showers and thunderstorms will produce moderate to
heavy rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes, Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi, and Tennessee
Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
of excessive rainfall over the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Moreover, there is a second
area of Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes on Friday. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.

Meanwhile, a tropical upper-level high over Mexico will aid in
spawning Heat Advisories over southern Texas through Friday. The
ridging will create a dangerous early-season heat wave over south
Texas. Record or near-record warm overnight temperatures will
provide little to no relief to those without adequate or reliable
cooling. By this weekend, record daily high temperatures and heat
index readings over 115 degrees in south Texas will also be
possible. Check local media and government websites for cooling
center locations and hours, especially if you encounter or are
dealing with a loss of power. If you use a portable generator, do
so safely to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Never use a
generator inside a house, garage, or other enclosed space!


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$