054
FXUS01 KWBC 280548
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
147 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 28 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 30 2026

...Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the
Mid-Atlantic into Northeast over the next few days; Moderate Risk
of Excessive Rainfall for parts of the northern
Mid-Atlantic/southern New England for Tuesday...

...Dangerous heat wave continues over parts of southern U.S. into
this week...

...Active monsoonal moisture brings thunderstorms and flash
flooding risk over the Four Corners Region, Rockies, and High
Plains...


The unsettled weather pattern continues for the eastern U.S. as a
series of shortwaves transverse southern Canada and the northern
tier of CONUS. At the surface, frontal boundaries draping across
the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast will
reinforce showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. The
strengthening low, strong instability, sufficient warm moisture,
and relatively weak storm motions will favor repeated rounds of
heavy rainfall and thunderstorms along the frontal zone across the
Carolinas, Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. With the
high rainfall rates and back-building of the storms, widespread
flash flooding will be possible as WPC has placed a Moderate Risk
(level 3/4) for excessive rainfall across the Tri-State Area,
while Slight Risk (level 2/4) encompasses portions of the
Mid-Atlantic into New England, as well as portions of the Ohio
Valley/Mid-Atlantic. With the presence of instability, shear, and
moist air, the Storm Prediction Center continues to have a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) for severe thunderstorms across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. These storms may also produce
damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. On Wednesday, the
frontal boundary continues to slowly move east/northeastward,
bringing another round of scattered thunderstorms capable of heavy
rainfall across the Northeast. Excessive rainfall and flash
flooding risk continues as the environment continues to support
heavy rainfall rates.

Across the Missouri/lower Mississippi Valley, the frontal boundary
and a shortwave trough will bring chances for thunderstorms and
showers. With the slow moving system and warm Gulf moisture
pooling along the boundary, the clustering of thunderstorms may
cause heavy downpours, which can lead to instances of flash
flooding. Across the Southeast, a shortwave trough will support
repeated thunderstorms across Florida and the Gulf Coast. The
moist unstable air mass will support high rainfall rates, leading
to localized flash flooding risk across the portions of western
Florida today. On Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary and
surface trough will produce slow moving thunderstorms. With the
potential for training and high rainfall rates, excessive rainfall
and flash flooding may be possible across portions of the
Southeast and central Gulf Coast Region. Additionally, SPC has
highlighted portions of the Southeast with a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms for Wednesday.

Across the southwest, daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be fueled by anomalous monsoonal moisture over the Four
Corners through the central/northern Plains. Shortwave energies
and instability will support some heavy rainfall through
Wednesday. With recent rainfall and slow-moving storms, localized
flash flooding may occur, especially over burn scars, slot
canyons, and vulnerable terrain. Therefore, a Slight Risk (level
2/4 ) of excessive rainfall has been placed for portions of the
Four Corners, while a Marginal Risk (level 1/4 ) broadly
encompasses the Four Corners and central Plains/Rockies through
Wednesday. Additionally, there is a severe thunderstorm threat
across the Central High Plains, as the storms may be capable of
producing severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. Further north
across the northern/central High Plains, a surface trough will
bring a severe thunderstorm threat capable of producing hail and
damaging winds on Wednesday.

Persistent upper ridging continues to remain in place, bringing
another period of well above normal temperatures across southern
U.S. Widespread afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 90s,
with localized readings exceeding 100 degrees across portions of
the Texas, Oklahoma, and Lower Mississippi Valley.  High
temperatures combined with high humidity, will produce dangerous
heat indices approaching or exceeding 105 to 115 degrees in some
locations. This will lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
levels. With warm overnight lows providing little relief from the
heat, heat related illness may increase for those without adequate
cooling or hydration. Additionally, temperatures will remain above
normal across portions of the Northern Plains/Rockies with highs
in the 90s.



Oudit

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




$$