912
FXUS01 KWBC 171921
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 18 2025 - 00Z Fri Jun 20 2025

...Flash flood threat for the central Appalachians, central
Plains, and the Midwest through tonight...

...Severe thunderstorm risks for the central U.S. into tonight,
Midwest & lower Great Lakes on Wednesday, & the Mid-Atlantic
States Thursday...

...Fire weather concerns for portions of the West & Rockies
through Thursday...Significant heat in the Southwest this
week...Heat builds in the East...

The main weather maker through Thursday will be a progressive
upper level disturbance and cold front pushing across the Plains
and the East.  From this afternoon and evening through early
Wednesday will be the time period when more intense thunderstorms
bring the risk of severe weather to the Central Plains in the
vicinity of a developing wave of low pressure. In addition to the
severe threat, flash flooding will also be a concern for parts of
the central Plains eastward into the Midwest and central
Appalachians.  The low pressure wave is forecast to intensify and
track northeast into the Midwest on Wednesday, so the threat of
severe thunderstorms will shift farther south and east from the
southern Plains across the Midwest/Ohio Valley and into the lower
Great Lakes as a result. Fortunately, the heavy rain threat should
lessen a bit on Wednesday and Thursday as the progressive nature
of the low pressure wave and cold front will likely keep heavier
rainfall totals in check. Across much of the Ohio Valley, southern
Mid-Atlantic and the Deep South, scattered thunderstorms will be
the rule the next couple of days due to increasing instability.
Once the approaching cold front nears the East on Thursday, more
widespread severe weather would be possible within the
increasingly hot and humid air mass.

As the initial progressive upper level disturbance moves through
the West, a fire weather risk shifts southeast across portions of
Arizona, the Four Corners, and into the far southern Rockies this
afternoon under a dry, gusty west to northwesterly wind.  Red Flag
Warnings are in effect for a large portion of those areas.  On
Wednesday, an elevated fire weather threat materializes across
interior portions of the Northwest as a second disturbance aloft
and attendant front approaches from the Pacific which then shifts
into the Great Basin on Thursday.  Significant heat expands across
the West on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge reestablishes
following the departure of the upper level disturbance.  High
temperatures will remain 110F+ for the hottest locations in the
Desert Southwest through the remainder of the week where Extreme
Heat Warnings remain in effect.  Meanwhile, Heat Advisories remain
in effect across parts of western Texas where high temperatures
approaching and exceeding 100F are forecast each afternoon through
Wednesday.  The building heat on Thursday brings the chance for
record high temperatures to a couple locations in and near the
Great Basin.  The Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic states, and New
England states will see increasing heat as a ridge of high
pressure briefly builds across the region and a warm front lifts
north of the area.  Record high temperatures...in the low
90s...are possible in southern New England on Thursday.

Miller/Roth/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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