488
FXUS01 KWBC 140735
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
335 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Jul 14 2025 - 12Z Wed Jul 16 2025

...Widespread heavy rainfall with the potential for numerous
instances of flash flooding along the I-95 corridor in the
Mid-Atlantic Monday...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida
Monday-Tuesday...

...Increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of the
north-central U.S. with flash flooding and severe weather expected
Tuesday...

...Uncomfortable heat remains in place across much of the eastern
and western U.S....

A moisture-rich Summer-time airmass remains in place ahead of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped from the Northeast
southwest through the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys and into the
southern Plains/Texas, continuing to promote widespread daily
thunderstorm development with heavy rainfall. For Monday, the
greatest coverage of storms is expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic including the I-95 corridor between the greater DC
area and northern New Jersey, where a Moderate Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 3/4) is now in effect. The combination of near
climatological maxima moisture values promoting very efficient
downpours/high rain rates and slow-moving/possibly training
thunderstorms ahead of the front will lead to heavy rainfall
totals and potentially numerous instances of flash flooding,
especially for urban areas. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4)
covers much of the rest of the Mid-Atlantic where more scattered
instances of flash flooding are expected. A Slight Risk is also in
place across portions of central Texas where antecedent conditions
remain more sensitive to additional rain given recent rainfall and
flooding. More isolated flash flooding concerns are expected along
the remainder of the boundary. The front will make little progress
on Tuesday, with another round of storms expected across portions
of the southern Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, where a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Areas to the west should
see some drier conditions, though storms and isolated flash
flooding will remain possible across the Middle Mississippi/Lower
Ohio Valleys.

Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are also expected over
portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula where the
National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure
along the Atlantic Coast, expected to move westward into the Gulf
over the next couple of days. Regardless of any further
development, an environment favorable for thunderstorms with
plentiful moisture for torrential downpours will lead to a flash
flooding risk. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect
both Monday and Tuesday, with the current greatest potential for
flash flooding in South Florida on Monday.

A wavy frontal boundary across the Upper-Midwest and northern
Plains/Rockies will be reinforced by additional colder air and
short-wave energy the next couple of days with increasing
thunderstorm chances. Some isolated flash flooding is possible
Monday, with thunderstorms generally confined to areas in vicinity
of the Canadian border. Then, on Tuesday, more widespread
thunderstorms are expected throughout the region. Mean flow more
parallel to the boundary and increasing moisture will bring the
chance of some training/repeated rounds of thunderstorms with
heavy downpours across portions of the Upper Midwest into the
Upper Missouri Valley, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for scattered flash flooding. More isolated instances of flash
flooding can be expected elsewhere. In addition, some severe
weather will be possible, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center across southeastern South Dakota into
north-central Nebraska, mainly for the threat of large hail and
damaging winds. Elsewhere, monsoonal moisture will continue to
bring thunderstorm chances to areas of the Southwest/Four Corners
region. The greatest chance for flash flooding will be on Tuesday
in southeastern Arizona where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
has been introduced.

Forecast high temperatures remain hot across much of the West
Monday under the influence of an upper-level high. Areas of Major
Heat Risk (level 3/4) are in place over portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, central California Valleys, and
Desert Southwest, indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone
without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration, and
heat-related advisories and warnings are in place. There is also a
Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) across portions of
interior Washington Monday, and then the central Great Basin
Tuesday. A cold front will bring some relief to areas of the
interior Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin Tuesday as highs
fall below Summer-time averages. Highs will remain cooler along
the immediate Pacific Coast, though areas of the Pacific Northwest
will see hotter, above average highs by Tuesday. Forecast highs
remain hot and muggy across much of the eastern U.S., with
conditions worsening into the week, beginning in the Southeast.
Areas of Major Heat Risk are expected with heat-related advisories
in place. Temperatures remain below average across the Southern
Plains with widespread clouds and precipitation in place, while
areas of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will
see hotter Summer temperatures Monday. In contrast, the cold front
pushing southward over portions of the northern Rockies/Plains on
Tuesday will be almost Fall-like. Forecast highs fall into the 60s
for many locations, with some 50s for areas of the Rockies,
upwards of 25-35 degrees below average for mid-July.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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