829
FXUS01 KWBC 181901
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 19 2026 - 00Z Tue Jul 21 2026

...Additional Canadian wildfire smoke to move south across the
Great Lakes into the Mid-West, while improvements to air quality
expected across the East...

...Active thunderstorms expected along and ahead of a cold front
pressing south along the east coast...

...An active monsoonal precip pattern to continue over the next
few days from the Southwest into the Great Basin...

...System over the northeast Gulf may bring heavy rains to coastal
sections of the eastern Gulf...

...Major heat risks build from the Northern Plains into the Lower
Mississippi Valley...

The ongoing wildfires across western portions of Ontario will
continue to be a source of wildfire smoke affecting portions of
the CONUS this weekend into next.  The next batch of smoke is
expected to push southward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-West
this weekend/early next week.  Air quality alerts are currently in
effect across these area and eastward into the Northeast and New
England.  While smoke concentrations are expected to increase over
the next few days over the Great Lakes to Mid-West areas, there is
expected to be a decrease in smoke concentrations from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast/New England as the current region
of smoke pushes northeastward and off the coast Saturday night
into early Sunday.  While additional smoke is forecast to sink
south and southeast Sunday and Monday across these areas, the
concentration of smoke is not expected to be as bad as the
recent/current event.

The lead area of smoke affecting the East on Saturday will be
shunted northeastward by a southeastward moving cold front late
Saturday into early Sunday.  Thunderstorms have already become
active along and ahead of this front Saturday afternoon across the
northeast and will likely continue Saturday evening from southern
New England, south through the Mid-Atlantic.  These thunderstorms
will pose the risk of heavy rains, localized flash flooding and
severe weather.  Active thunderstorms along and ahead of this
front will then affect the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southern
Appalachians Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, with heavy
rains, isolated flash flooding and severe weather.

Relatively quiet weather expected over areas of Texas hit hard
from recent very rains.  Locally heavy rains are possible,
however. over far Southwest Texas where above average moisture
values are expected.  These above average moisture values will
also extend farther to the northwest, across the Southwest and
into the Great Basin.  This will support a continuation of an
active monsoonal precipitation pattern across these areas.
Locally heavy rains and isolated flash flooding are possible
across these regions for this weekend and extending into the
beginning to middle parts of the upcoming week.

Across the northeast Gulf, an slow moving system may bring heavy
rains to coastal sections of the eastern Gulf over the next few
days.  Please see the latest National Hurricane Center`s Tropical
Weather Outlook for additional information on this system.

Temperature wise, major heat risks will be increasing Sunday and
Monday from the Northern Plains, southeastward into the Lower
Missouri and Lower Mississippi Valleys.  Much above average
temperatures expected across these areas with highs ranging from
the Mid 90s to Lower 100s.


Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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