081
FXUS01 KWBC 061922
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast
and Plains States for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend;
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall today in Iowa...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great
Basin and Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across
northwestern Montana on Labor Day, followed by strong
thunderstorms across the Northern Plains Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler
air expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A frontal boundary bisecting the Central and Southern U.S.
continues to slowly press southward, and is expected to eventually
stall as it encounters the heat dome anchored over the country`s
midsection. Behind the front, much of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic can enjoy a break from the heat as high temperatures
only reach into the mid-70s and low-80s for the next couple of
afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s will bring
a first taste of Fall across New England. West of the boundary,
showers and thunderstorms are on deck this afternoon as the
leading edge of the front encounters a moist and unstable airmass
on the periphery of the Plains heat dome. Isolated to scattered
severe weather and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon with
any storms that develop across portions of the lower Mid-Atlantic,
Southeast, and Central/Northern Plains. Within this broad area,
however, a corridor of enhanced flash flooding potential has
emerged over western Iowa as storms containing high rainfall rates
focus over the area and lead to rainfall potentially in excess of
5". Accordingly, this area has been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall today, and Flood Watches are in effect through
late tonight.

West of the Rockies, a deep upper-level low continues to edge
farther inland across the western U.S. and support cool but
unsettled weather today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall remains
possible today over southern Nevada and central Utah as
strengthening southerly flow directs moisture originating from
Hurricane Marie to the south toward a slow-moving front. Urban
areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most
vulnerable to flooding. Over the next couple of days, a
low-pressure system is forecast to gradually consolidate across
the northern High Plains as the deep upper-low edges toward the
Northern Rockies. The developing storm will interact with the
anomalous moisture to yield an expansive shield of moderate to
locally heavy rain on the northern flank of the low over the
Northern Rockies. WPC is highlighting northwestern Montana for a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall on Labor Day. East of the
wrap-around rainfall, an approaching Pacific cold front could
drive strong thunderstorms across the Northern Plains, spreading
eastward into the Upper Midwest, and southward into the Central
Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on Tuesday as the maturing
cyclone drifts across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West
this weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 25
degrees below normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures
are expected across the higher elevations as far south as northern
California and the Sierra Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat
will continue through Labor Day in the Nation`s Heartland with the
unrelenting upper-level ridge over the nation`s midsection. Heat
indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight
temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern Plains
States and Mississippi Valley through Labor Day and into the work
week. See WPC`s Key Messages for more information on the heat,
limit afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated
regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/LatestKeyMessage_1.png




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