127
FXUS01 KWBC 200631
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 22 2026

...Excessive Rainfall threat across portions of the Midwest, Ohio
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Plains, northern/central Rockies through
Sunday...

...Chances for severe thunderstorms across portions of the
central/southern Plains into Midwest and Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic
through Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorm threat continues into Monday for portions
of the central and southern Appalachians and Southeast...


A upper-level low and associated shortwave energy will continue
eastward into the northern Plains through Sunday. At the surface,
the slow moving frontal boundary and shortwave trough across
portions of the Rockies/Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast
will support scattered showers and thunderstorms along the
boundary. Repeated convection may develop and organized convection
may lead to high rainfall rates as the disturbances interact with
unstable moist airmass. Therefore, excessive rainfall and flash
flooding concerns will prevail across portions of the
northern/central Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
portions of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday, especially where
soils remain saturated from previous rainfall. Additionally, Storm
Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a risk for severe
thunderstorms capable of producing hail and severe winds across
portions of the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic.

On Monday, the frontal system continues to push southeastward,
while moist and unstable airmass remain entrenched across portions
of the Plains, Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.
Organized convection may lead to excessive rainfall concerns over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern Plains, while a severe
thunderstorm threat shifts into portions of the central/southern
Appalachians and the Southeast. Across the Southeast, showers and
thunderstorms are expected, particularly during the afternoon and
evening when instability increases. Localized downpours will be
possible from slow moving storms, leaving areas across South
Florida vulnerable to excessive rain through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue across central and southern
Plains, Tennessee Valley, and lower Mississippi Valley, while
temperatures moderate across the northern Plains, Midwest, and
Great Lakes behind the trough and associated frontal system.


Oudit



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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