735
FXUS01 KWBC 150658
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 - 12Z Tue Jun 17 2025

...A flash flood threat remains over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Sunday, the Central & Southern Plains into Missouri & Arkansas
Sunday into Monday, and the Corn Belt on Tuesday...

...Severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains & Midwest into Tuesday...

...Significant heat remains an issue for portions of the southern
Rockies & Desert Southwest Sunday & Monday...

The general flow pattern features building ridging across New
Mexico on Sunday which temporarily erodes by Tuesday as
upper-level troughing from the Pacific Northwest and eastern
Pacific plows into the interior, forcing system
progression/increasingly zonal flow across a broadening portion of
the Lower 48.  Downstream, a weakness/upper-level trough remains
from portions of the Ohio Valley southwest into the Lower
Mississippi Valley though it weakens with time.  Ridging slowly
builds downstream from the East Coast into the adjacent western
Atlantic.

With the upper level trough slowly weakening from the Ohio Valley
to the northwest Gulf Coast, the flash flood threat across the
Virginias and North Carolina near a wavering front will wane from
Sunday to Monday.  The greatest risk lies across portions of West
Virginia and Virginia on Sunday, where scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding are possible over increasingly
saturated soils.  Thunderstorms remain in the forecast across
portions of the Ohio Valley down to the Gulf Coast and eastward
through portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states in a
moist and unstable air mass near and south of a quasi-stationary
front into Tuesday.

Across portions of the Plains and the Midwest, disturbances moving
through aloft cause both flash flooding and severe thunderstorms
to remain threats through Tuesday, though the severe weather is
the greater hazard in the Northern Plains Sunday & Monday before
sinking into the Central Plains Tuesday.  For areas of the Corn
Belt, both the severe weather and flash flood risks are comparable
on Sunday and Tuesday with the severe weather threat taking
precedence on Monday.  The greatest flash flood risk shifts from
portions of Kansas and Oklahoma into Arkansas Sunday and into the
Corn Belt on Tuesday as disturbances within the increasingly zonal
flow pattern tap enough moisture, instability, and wind shear to
organize convection farther to the north.

Ridging across New Mexico and portions of the Southwest keeps the
region hot on Sunday and Monday, with daily record highs being
approached if not exceeded in a few locations.  Heat advisories
and excessive heat warnings are in effect from near El Paso
westward into the Desert Southwest, where the probabilities of
high temperatures of 100F+ are greatest.  For the deserts, high
temperatures in the 110s -- with Death Valley threatening 120F --
are anticipated.  Staying hydrated, limiting outdoor exposure and
wearing light-colored clothing when you do, and staying in air
conditioned places remain the best ways to survive the heat.  On
Tuesday, a front developing as it drops through the Great Basin
should allow for less extreme heat, though for just one day.

Roth


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


$$