173
FXUS01 KWBC 142001
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 15 2025 - 00Z Thu Jul 17 2025

...Widespread heavy rainfall with the potential for numerous
instances of flash flooding along the I-95 corridor in the
Mid-Atlantic tonight...

...Heavy rainfall and flash flood threat for Florida through
Tuesday...

...Increasing thunderstorm chances across portions of the
north-central U.S. with flash flooding and severe weather likely
Tuesday...

...Uncomfortable heat remains in place across much of the eastern
U.S....

A moisture-rich Summer-time airmass remains in place ahead of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary draped from the Northeast
southwest through the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys and into the
southern Plains/Texas, continuing to promote widespread daily
thunderstorm development with heavy rainfall. Tonight, the
greatest coverage of storms is expected across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic including the I-95 corridor between the greater DC
area and northern New Jersey, where a Moderate Risk (at least 40%
chance) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect. The combination of
near climatological maxima moisture values promoting very
efficient downpours/high rain rates and slow-moving/possibly
training thunderstorms ahead of the front will lead to heavy
rainfall totals and potentially numerous instances of flash
flooding, especially for urban areas. A broader Slight Risk (at
least 15% chance) covers much of the rest of the Mid-Atlantic
where more scattered instances of flash flooding are expected. A
Moderate Risk was just introduced across portions of central Texas
where antecedent conditions remain more sensitive to additional
rain given recent rainfall and flooding. More isolated flash
flooding concerns are expected along the remainder of the
boundary. The front will make little progress on Tuesday, with
another round of storms expected across portions of the southern
Mid-Atlantic/central Appalachians, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect. Areas to the west should see some
drier conditions, though storms and isolated flash flooding will
remain possible across the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valleys.

Thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are also expected over
portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula where the
National Hurricane Center is monitoring a trough of low pressure
along the Atlantic Coast, expected to move westward into the Gulf
over the next couple of days. Regardless of any further
development, an environment favorable for thunderstorms with
plentiful moisture for torrential downpours will lead to a flash
flooding risk. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall are in effect
through Tuesday, with the current greatest potential for flash
flooding in South Florida tonight.

A wavy frontal boundary across the Upper-Midwest and northern
Plains/Rockies will be reinforced by additional colder air and
short-wave energy the next couple of days with increasing
thunderstorm chances. Some isolated flash flooding is possible
tonight, with thunderstorms generally confined to areas in
vicinity of the Canadian border. Then, on Tuesday, more widespread
thunderstorms are expected throughout the region. Mean flow more
parallel to the boundary and increasing moisture will bring the
chance of some training/repeated rounds of thunderstorms with
heavy downpours across portions of the Upper Midwest into the
Upper Missouri Valley, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
for scattered flash flooding. More isolated instances of flash
flooding can be expected elsewhere. In addition, some severe
weather will be possible, with Slight Risks (level 2/5) from the
Storm Prediction Center across southeastern South Dakota into
north-central Nebraska as well as over eastern Minnesota across
northern Wisconsin and into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan,
mainly for the threat of large hail and damaging winds. Elsewhere,
monsoonal moisture will continue to bring thunderstorm chances to
areas of the Southwest/Four Corners region. The greatest chance
for flash flooding will be on Tuesday in southeastern Arizona
where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been introduced.

Forecast high temperatures remain hot across much of the West
Monday under the influence of an upper-level high. Areas of Major
Heat Risk (level 3/4) are in place over portions of the interior
Pacific Northwest/Great Basin, central California Valleys, and
Desert Southwest, indicating a level of heat dangerous to anyone
without access to adequate air conditioning or hydration, and
heat-related advisories and warnings are in place. There is also a
Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) across portions of
interior Washington tonight, and then the central Great Basin
Tuesday. A cold front will bring some relief to areas of the
interior Pacific Northwest/northern Great Basin Tuesday as highs
fall below Summer-time averages. Highs will remain cooler along
the immediate Pacific Coast, though areas of the Pacific Northwest
will see hotter, above average highs by Tuesday. Forecast highs
remain hot and muggy across much of the eastern U.S., with
conditions worsening into the week, beginning in the Southeast.
Areas of Major Heat Risk are expected with heat-related advisories
in place. The cold front pushing southward over portions of the
northern Rockies/Plains on Tuesday will be almost Fall-like.
Forecast highs fall into the 60s for many locations, with some 50s
for areas of the Rockies, upwards of 25-35 degrees below average
for mid-July.

Kebede/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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