301
FXUS01 KWBC 030815
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 03 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 05 2026

...Excessive rainfall threat across the Southeast on Sunday while
continuing across the central Gulf Coast and southern Texas while
this weekend...

...A long duration October heatwave emerging across central and
southern California before spreading into the Great Basin...

Over the next couple of days, the excessive rainfall threat will
remain focused along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast as an
anomalous October heatwave builds across the western U.S. The
lingering wet weather pattern results from a cool and dry air mass
across the northern tier of the country interacting with a
tropical wave over the Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center
maintains a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive
rainfall for today near the central Gulf Coast to the Florida
Panhandle in addition to the lower Texas Gulf Coast. By Sunday,
the excessive rainfall threat is forecast to lift northeastward
across the interior Southeast and into the Carolinas with the
passage of a weak upper trough. A few additional inches of heavy
rain can be expected along the central Gulf Coast, with a maximum
of 7 inches possible near the immediate coast of Alabama. The
heavy rainfall threat will gradually decrease from Sunday night to
Monday morning for the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast as the
trough nudges the front farther south.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will sweep across the northern
tier states bringing scattered to isolated showers and
thunderstorms to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from today into
Sunday morning. By early Monday morning, a stronger cold front
trailing south from the intensifying low pressure system in Quebec
could bring heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms into interior
New England. Across the Mid-Atlantic, showers behind a cold front
early this morning will move off the coast as the cool air mass
from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast takes over.

As the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge
of high pressure will help build a late season October heatwave
across the western U.S. through the weekend and into next week.
Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal, bringing
highs well into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent urban areas,
with some areas in the Central Valley reaching 100. Overnight lows
in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego urban
areas will provide little relief through the heat wave. Extreme
heat warnings are in effect for much of coastal southern
California, while heat advisories are in effect for central
California. The heat will then expand farther northeast over the
next couple of days, with high temperatures in the 80s and near 90
degrees emerging across the Great Basin.  Elsewhere, clear
conditions accompanying a high pressure system have prompted frost
advisories and freeze warnings early this morning for portions of
northern Wisconsin and Michigan.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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