178
FXUS01 KWBC 201907
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Central Appalachians
to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and the Southern
Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...

A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off
the Northeast Coast by Tuesday and produce heavy rain over parts
of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being
the most vulnerable.

Upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday into Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore,
the SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains and the
Southern Plains through Monday morning.  The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Northern/Central Plains and
southward to the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Additionally, an
upper-level low moving over Southern California will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest and
Central/Southern California.

On Tuesday, another wave of low pressure will move over the
Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, developing showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic.  The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the
most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will also extend from
the Mid-Atlantic southward into Florida.

Moreover, moisture flowing northwestward over Texas into the
Southern Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southwest. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southwest.  The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being
the most vulnerable. The showers and thunderstorms will extend
northward into the Central Rockies/Central High Plains.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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