706
FXUS01 KWBC 190753
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 19 2025 - 12Z Sat Jun 21 2025

...Severe thunderstorms to envelope much of the East today; daily
rounds of severe weather are expected across the Northern Plains,
Upper Midwest, & Great Lakes through Friday...

...Searing heat continues in the Southwest, Intermountain West,
and High Plains...

...The origins of a dangerous central and eastern U.S. heat wave
kicks off this weekend in the Midwest...

...Fire weather a concern for portions of the West & Rockies
through Friday...

Multiple rounds of severe weather are expected across the northern
and eastern U.S. through the end of the week. Today, the spotlight
for severe weather potential shines brightest along the East Coast
with the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions most at risk. This is
due to a cold front that will spark numerous showers and
thunderstorms from the Mid-South to as far north as northern
Maine. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has an Enhanced Risk
(threat level 3/5) for severe weather along the I-95 corridor of
the Mid-Atlantic. This includes metropolitan areas such as
Washington D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia, Richmond, and the New
York City`s New Jersey suburbs. Damaging wind gusts associated
with severe storms are of greatest concern, while some severe
storms could also contain tornadoes and large hail. The potential
for severe weather today extends as far north as northern New
England to as far south as the Carolinas. In addition to the
severe weather threat, there is also a flash flood risk throughout
much of these aforementioned regions. There is a Slight Risk in
place for parts of the Upper Ohio River Valley and central
Appalachians where recent Excessive Rainfall has made this area
particularly vulnerable to flash flooding. While the severe
weather threat concludes by Friday morning in the East, the North
Central U.S. will contend with daily and nightly rounds of severe
storms thanks to an elongated frontal boundary and an
exceptionally hot/steamy air-mass. SPC has issued Slight Risks
across North Dakota and the Upper Midwest today and Friday.
Strong-to-severe weather will remain in the forecast on Saturday
as storms envelope an area that stretches as far west as eastern
Montana to as far east as Upstate New York.

The other headlining weather story for not just the end of this
week, but lasting well into next week as well, is the expanding
heat wave that has a tight grip over the Southwest, the Rockies,
and northern High Plains today. Extreme Heat Warnings are out for
Las Vegas and Phoenix today and Friday while Heat Advisories have
been issued for cities such as Denver, Salt Lake City,
Albuquerque, and El Paso. By Friday, an approaching upper-level
low will cause temperatures to plummet to below normal levels from
the Pacific Northwest on south along the California coast. This
upper-low will force the growing heat dome east into the Heartland
high temperature topping the century mark in the Central Plains.
Numerous daily record highs are likely to be broken in the Central
Plains, while residual above normal temperatures in the East on
Thursday results in record warm daily minimum temperatures in the
Mid-Atlantic. By this weekend, a strengthening upper-level ridge
of high pressure over the eastern U.S. will deliver the most
oppressive heat of the season to date from the Central Plains and
Midwest on east for just about everyone east of the Mississippi
River this weekend and into next week. Extreme Heat Watches are
already in place across much of the Midwest due to the likelihood
of experiencing 105-110 degree heat indices this weekend. WPC is
issuing Key Messages for this dangerous late June heat wave, which
can be viewed under the "WPC Top Stories" section on the right
side of the WPC homepage. For additional heat safety tips, please
visit the National Weather Service`s heat safety page located
here: https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

In addition to the stifling heat in the Southwest, Great Basin,
and Central Rockies today and Friday, there is also a pronounced
fire weather threat in these areas for the second half of the
week. SPC has a pair of Critical Fire Weather Areas for portions
of Nevada, western Utah, and northwest Arizona. The combination of
hot conditions, gusty winds, and dry fuels support the potential
for rapid fire spread in these areas. There are also Elevated Fire
Weather Areas in place across much of the Great Basin and also in
California`s San Joaquin Valley. By Friday, the elevated risk for
favorable fire weather conditions extends farther east across much
of Utah, northern Arizona, western Colorado, and northwest New
Mexico.


Mullinax


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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