388
FXUS01 KWBC 051955
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 06 2025 - 00Z Wed Oct 08 2025

...Cold front to bring rain, thunderstorms and increased flash
flood potential to portions of the central and east-central U.S.
through early week...

...Above average warmth for parts of the Midwest and Northeast
Monday and Tuesday with possible record high temperatures in New
England...

An ongoing storm system, from the northern Rockies to northern
Plains, will continue to wind down this evening with higher
elevation snow across southern Montana into Wyoming coming to an
end early tonight. Any additional snowfall accumulations for the
higher elevations should be light through Monday morning.
Lingering rainfall for the northern Plains will also be winding
down but thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
associated cold front later this evening from Kansas into
Wisconsin. Slow movement of the front will likely support areas of
heavy rain and possible localized flash flooding from central
Kansas into central Iowa tonight.

Colder temperatures will be found in the wake of the cold front
with high temperatures falling as much as 10 to 30 degrees on
Monday compared to Sunday`s highs from the central Plains into the
Upper Midwest. The cold front over the central U.S. will continue
to track south and east on Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
over the eastern U.S. begins to retreat. Above average
temperatures will continue to be found ahead of the cold front
with the greatest departures from average occurring from the
Midwest to the Northeast with widespread highs in the 80s on
Monday. These values are roughly 10 to 20 degrees above average
and a few record high temperatures could be broken in the
Northeast on Monday and Tuesday, although Monday looks to be the
warmest of the two days.

Anomalous moisture returning northward to the west of the East
Coast ridge will move through the lower Mississippi Valley to the
confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers over the next two
days. An increased coverage of thunderstorms is expected from the
central Gulf Coast into the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on
Monday and as the cold front approaches from the northwest on
Tuesday, increasing the chances for flash flooding. A Slight Risk
(level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Monday,
centered over western Kentucky and on Tuesday, centered over
east-central Kentucky, where a few 3 to 5 inch totals may occur.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$