754
FXUS01 KWBC 150748
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
347 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 15 2025 - 12Z Thu Jul 17 2025

...Heavy rainfall/flash flood risk continues for portions of the
Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians into mid-week...

...Heavy downpours and possible flash flooding expected with
tropical disturbance crossing the Florida Peninsula Tuesday...

...Potent Summer storm system will bring the threat of flash
flooding and severe weather to the Midwest and northern/central
Plains the next couple of days...

...Increasing heat threat across much of the eastern U.S. through
at least mid-week...

A moisture-rich Summer-time airmass over much of the
eastern/central U.S. will continue to lead to areas of scattered
to widespread thunderstorms capable of heavy downpours and flash
flooding. A lingering frontal boundary across the
Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians west into the Ohio Valley will be one
such focus area the next couple of days with moisture values near
climatological maximums leading to very heavy downpours/high rain
rates. The greatest concentration of storms will be across the
southern Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians on Tuesday and shift northward
with the boundary into the central Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians on
Wednesday. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in
place for these regions both days for the threat of scattered
flash flooding, with more isolated instances expected westward
through the Ohio Valley. Further South, the National Hurricane
Center continues to monitor an area of low pressure along the
Atlantic coast of Florida, forecast to drift westward across the
Peninsula and into the northern Gulf the next couple of days.
Regardless of any further development, associated thunderstorm
activity and plentiful tropical moisture will bring the threat of
isolated to scattered flash flooding to Florida, with a Slight
Risk in place for the central Peninsula Tuesday. Increasing
thunderstorm chances will shift westward with the low along the
central Gulf Coast Wednesday with additional isolated instances of
flash flooding possible.

A potent upper-level short-wave and accompanying surface cold
front will be another focus area for widespread thunderstorms
across the north-central U.S. On Tuesday, the front will stretch
from the Upper Great Lakes southwest into the Upper Missouri
Valley, with plentiful moisture and the possibility of repeated
rounds/training thunderstorms moving parallel to the front leading
to scattered flash flooding, with a Slight Risk in place. The
Storm Prediction Center has also included a Slight Risk of severe
weather (level 2/5) for the threat of damaging winds and large
hail. Further to the southwest over portions of central Nebraska,
locally greater instability will fuel more potent thunderstorms,
with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5) for the threat
of more widespread, potentially significant damaging winds.
Additional storms are expected northwest along the arcing cold
front into the northern High Plains, with a Slight Risk of some
damaging winds across eastern Wyoming, and isolated flash flooding
possible broadly across the region. The front will make some slow
southeastward progress into Wednesday, with storm chances shifting
into the Upper Mississippi Valley southwest through the Middle
Missouri Valley and into the central Plains. Another Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall is in place for flash flooding, with a
Slight Risk of severe weather focused on the Upper Mississippi
Valley mainly for the threat of damaging winds.

Lingering thunderstorms associated with a convective complex over
sensitive areas of central Texas will continue to bring the threat
of scattered flash flooding into Tuesday with a Slight Risk in
place. Scattered Monsoonal thunderstorms chances remain in the
forecast into mid-week across portions of the Southwest/Four
Corners Region. The greatest threat for scattered flash flooding
will be on Tuesday over southeastern Arizona where a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall is in effect, with isolated chances
elsewhere. The rest of the interior West and Pacific Coast will be
mostly dry, though the threat of dry thunderstorms/lightning as
well as some gusty winds across the central Great Basin has
resulted in an Elevated to Critical Risk of fire weather (levels
1-2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center.

The moisture-rich airmass over the East will bring increasingly
uncomfortable conditions as temperatures steadily warm into 90s
over the next couple of days. Areas of Major Heat Risk (level 3/4)
increase in coverage from Tuesday into Wednesday across the
Southeast and especially into the Northeast, indicating a level of
heat dangerous to anyone without adequate air conditioning or
hydration. In the West, hotter temperatures and heat-related
advisories remain in effect for portions of the central California
Valleys and western Great Basin Tuesday as temperatures rise into
the upper 90s to low 100s, before a bit of relief comes Wednesday.
The heat will shift northward into the Pacific Northwest where
highs into the 90s have triggered heat-related advisories
Tuesday-Wednesday. Onshore flow will continue to bring cooler,
below average conditions to coastal California. The cold front
moving into the north-central U.S. will bring almost early
Fall-like conditions. Forecast high temperatures Tuesday-Wednesday
will be mainly in the mid- to upper 60s for the Upper Midwest and
northern Plains, with 50s for some locations into the northern
Rockies, upwards of 25-35 degrees below mid-July averages and
near-record low maximums.  Highs ahead of the front across the
Midwest to central Plains will remain much hotter and above
average, into the 90s for most locations, with below average
temperatures still lingering over the Southern Plains.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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