641
FXUS01 KWBC 300700
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Sep 01 2025

...Pleasant, fall-like weather in store across much of the Eastern
U.S. through the holiday weekend...

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected from the Gulf
Coast to the Plains and southern Rockies this weekend with some
potential for flash flooding...

...Heat builds across the Western U.S. after a reprieve from
recent monsoonal rains...

In the wake of a cold front that just recently swept through the
Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio Valley, a pleasant,
fall-like Labor Day weekend is in store across the region with
high pressure talking control. Afternoon high temperatures will
top out in the 60s and 70s, while overnight lows bottom out in the
40s and 50s. Some typically cooler spots near the Great Lakes and
interior Northeast may even dip into 30s, making for a chilly
start each day. While it won`t be quite as fall-like farther south
across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians, temperatures the
next few days will still be several degrees below normal for this
time of year.

Above normal moisture streaming around the southern and western
periphery of the bubble of high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes and Northeast will make for wet and stormy weather from the
Gulf Coast to the Plains and southern Rockies through the weekend.
The above normal moisture combined with a nearly stationary
frontal boundary draped along the Gulf Coast and a slow-moving
frontal system across the Plains will set the stage for rounds of
drenching showers and thunderstorms, some of which can produce
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. The greatest
concern for flooding issues lies across portions of the Plains and
southern Rockies through Sunday, with a couple broad and/or
targeted Slight Risks of excessive rainfall (level 2/4) outlined
in this area. Fortunately, the threat lessens somewhat heading
into Labor Day; however, the stationary boundary lingering along
the Gulf Coast and the frontal system over the central and
southern Plains will continue to be a focus for additional heavier
showers and thunderstorms. If traveling through places that are at
risk of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding this holiday
weekend, be aware of alternate routes in advance and never drive
through flooded roadways.

After a very active monsoon the last couple of weeks, a developing
ridge of high pressure and much drier air will deliver a much
needed reprieve from the daily onslaught of showers and
thunderstorms across a large portion of the Four Corners, Rockies,
and Intermountain West. The drier air underneath the building
ridge will promote increasing sunshine, allowing temperatures
across much of the West to gradually heat up the next few days.
The growing heat will become the most intense across the lower
desert valleys of the Southwest, along with the lower elevations
of the Pacific Northwest, where high temperatures will soar well
into the 90s and 100s. Temperatures of this magnitude occurring in
these regions in late August and early September equate to
widespread Moderate HeatRisk, with spotty but increasing coverage
of Major HeatRisk. To beat the heat this weekend, remember to stay
hydrated, take frequent breaks, and seek shade and air
conditioning whenever possible.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$