004
FXUS01 KWBC 152010
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 16 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 18 2025

...Additional heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and
debris flows possible
for parts of southern California in this evening followed by a
second round of moisture into northern and central California on
Sunday night into Monday...

...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across Texas into
early next week...

...Wintry mix across northern New York and interior New England,
with several inches of snow in the higher elevations tonight into
Sunday...

A vigorous and slow-moving cyclone is currently bringing a robust
surge of subtropical moisture with strong onshore winds and the
heaviest rainfall into the southern half of California. The
Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Moderate Risk
(Level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall, the second-highest
category, centered over coastal southern California. Additional
rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches can be expected, pushing storm
totals to over 6 inches especially along the Transverse Ranges.
Numerous flash floods and debris flows will likely to impact
southern to central California into this evening, especially for
burn scar and other vulnerable areas in Los Angeles, Santa
Barbara, and Ventura counties. Meanwhile, the eastern edge of the
heavy rain has reached southern Nevada and is edging into western
Arizona.

The main axis of heavy rainfall will slowly begin to shift east
and subside late tonight as the associated upper-level low weakens
and tracks inland, spreading widespread precipitation across the
Great Basin, the Southwest, and then the central and southern
Rockies for the remainder of the weekend. Meanwhile, a second
surge of moisture associated with the next Pacific frontal system
will quickly reach central and northern California beginning late
Sunday and continuing into Monday. While moisture values are
expected to be less impressive, this next system will bring
additional rounds of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms,
renewing the threat for at least isolated flooding concerns. This
second system will also usher in colder air, driving snow levels
down significantly over the northern Sierra Nevada by Monday
morning. Wet snow will likely accumulate in earnest as the day
progresses on Monday. Meanwhile, scattered showers are expected to
expand across the remainder of California into western Nevada and
central Arizona on Monday, along with embedded thunderstorms
especially ahead of the main cold front. Also on Monday, wet snow
is forecast to reach western Wyoming and portions of the Colorado
Rockies.

Further east, a large area of unseasonably warm air remains out
ahead of a strong cold front moving through the central and
eastern U.S. As the cold front advances quickly through these
areas, a low pressure system is forecast to develop and intensify,
and track through the Great Lakes this evening then through the
Northeast on Sunday. Ahead of this system, a wintry mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain is developing over portions of northern
New York and New England this afternoon and will likely continue
into Sunday, with several inches of accumulating snow expected in
some of the higher elevations. As the system lifts out into the
Canadian Maritimes late Sunday, colder air from Canada in its wake
will produce the next chance of organized lake-effect snow showers
downwind of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, blustery and colder
conditions will expand across much of the Great Lakes, Northeast,
and into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and Monday. In contrast, well
above-normal to record-breaking temperatures are forecast to
persist over the Southern Plains into early next week as the
trailing portion of the front begins to stall.


Kong/Pereira


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$