020
FXUS01 KWBC 142012
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 15 2025 - 00Z Mon Nov 17 2025

...Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows
possible for parts of Southern California especially on Saturday...

...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across the southern
Plains this weekend....

A slow-moving upper-level low is currently amplifying and sliding
southward along the California coast, funneling an atmospheric
river of deep Pacific moisture into the state. The initial
moisture plume has already overspread southern to central
California generally from Los Angeles northward today. A much more
potent moisture plume is forecast to overspread these same areas
from south to north with very heavy rain, strong winds, and
high-elevation snow on Saturday. Widespread rainfall totals of 2
to 5 inches are expected across the urban and coastal areas of
southern California over the next 48 hours. The most significant
amounts are forecast over the favored coastal-facing slopes of the
Transverse Ranges, where localized totals could exceed 6 inches by
the time the system begins to depart on Sunday. Excessive rainfall
is the primary, life-threatening concern, with widespread flash
flooding and debris flows likely across the vulnerable burn scar
areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties.

Additionally, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the
higher elevations of the central and  southern Sierra Nevada,
where snow accumulations exceeding a foot, along with powerful
winds, will create very difficult travel conditions.

Meanwhile, High Wind Warnings across parts of the northern Rockies
into the northern High Plains will expire late this afternoon
following the passage of a cold front with the potential of
damaging winds initially. South of this front, a pronounced surge
of unseasonably warm air is resulting in near-record to
record-breaking high temperatures across a broad region of the
Great Plains today. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until late
this afternoon for portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, where
any ignition could lead to rapid fire growth.

Temperatures over the Northern and Central Plains will cool down
behind the cold front but they are forecast to remain above normal
for mid-November into the weekend. Meanwhile, the potential for
record high temperatures are expected to be shoved into Southern
Plains for much of Texas and Oklahoma through the weekend.

Following an afternoon with temperatures rebounding to above
normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, the next period of
widespread precipitation will arrive this weekend as the frontal
system advances out of the central U.S. This front will bring the
chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the
Upper Ohio Valley, with a limited risk of strong wind gusts.  As
the system pivots east, a developing surface low will bring a mix
of rain and a period of wintry precipitation to the interior
Northeast on Sunday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected to be along the western slopes of the Appalachians ahead
of the cold front Saturday night, with rain moving through the
southern half of New England. By Sunday, colder air will rush
across the Great Lakes with blustery conditions and rain showers
changing to wet snow. Afternoon high temperatures into the 70s can
be expected from the Mid-Atlantic down into Florida and across the
South this weekend before the arrival of the cold front late on
Sunday with only widely scattered showers and perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms. Meanwhile, rain will linger over the Pacific
Northwest before it gradually tapers off during the weekend.

Kong/Pereira


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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