Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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020 FXUS01 KWBC 142012 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 00Z Sat Nov 15 2025 - 00Z Mon Nov 17 2025 ...Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows possible for parts of Southern California especially on Saturday... ...Well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across the southern Plains this weekend.... A slow-moving upper-level low is currently amplifying and sliding southward along the California coast, funneling an atmospheric river of deep Pacific moisture into the state. The initial moisture plume has already overspread southern to central California generally from Los Angeles northward today. A much more potent moisture plume is forecast to overspread these same areas from south to north with very heavy rain, strong winds, and high-elevation snow on Saturday. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across the urban and coastal areas of southern California over the next 48 hours. The most significant amounts are forecast over the favored coastal-facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges, where localized totals could exceed 6 inches by the time the system begins to depart on Sunday. Excessive rainfall is the primary, life-threatening concern, with widespread flash flooding and debris flows likely across the vulnerable burn scar areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. Additionally, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the higher elevations of the central and southern Sierra Nevada, where snow accumulations exceeding a foot, along with powerful winds, will create very difficult travel conditions. Meanwhile, High Wind Warnings across parts of the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains will expire late this afternoon following the passage of a cold front with the potential of damaging winds initially. South of this front, a pronounced surge of unseasonably warm air is resulting in near-record to record-breaking high temperatures across a broad region of the Great Plains today. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until late this afternoon for portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, where any ignition could lead to rapid fire growth. Temperatures over the Northern and Central Plains will cool down behind the cold front but they are forecast to remain above normal for mid-November into the weekend. Meanwhile, the potential for record high temperatures are expected to be shoved into Southern Plains for much of Texas and Oklahoma through the weekend. Following an afternoon with temperatures rebounding to above normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, the next period of widespread precipitation will arrive this weekend as the frontal system advances out of the central U.S. This front will bring the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley, with a limited risk of strong wind gusts. As the system pivots east, a developing surface low will bring a mix of rain and a period of wintry precipitation to the interior Northeast on Sunday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to be along the western slopes of the Appalachians ahead of the cold front Saturday night, with rain moving through the southern half of New England. By Sunday, colder air will rush across the Great Lakes with blustery conditions and rain showers changing to wet snow. Afternoon high temperatures into the 70s can be expected from the Mid-Atlantic down into Florida and across the South this weekend before the arrival of the cold front late on Sunday with only widely scattered showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms. Meanwhile, rain will linger over the Pacific Northwest before it gradually tapers off during the weekend. Kong/Pereira Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$