976
FXUS01 KWBC 230809
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 12Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...Flash flood threat across the southern Plains today will
gradually shift east to reach the Mid-South Monday night...

...Pacific system to bring lower elevation rain, locally heavy
mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies into
Monday...

...Blustery, colder, and snowy weather rapidly spread into the
northern High Plains Monday night while above average temperatures
continue for much of the eastern/central U.S....

A vigorous and unusually far south occluded cyclone is currently
making landfall over Baja California early this Sunday morning.
Moisture well ahead of this system has already spread locally
heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms into Arizona and quickly
moving into New Mexico.  The vigorous dynamics associated with the
system will begin to interact with moist air returning from the
Gulf to fuel widespread showers and thunderstorms ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front.  Repeated thunderstorms moving roughly
parallel to a warm front and then lifted ahead of a cold front
will bring a risk for scattered flash flooding, with the greatest
threat stretching from the Texas Hill Country to south-central
Oklahoma today into tonight, as highlighted by a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4).  Recent heavy rains through this
region may also heighten the flood threat.  From later Monday into
Tuesday morning, the heavy rain and severe weather threats are
forecast to push farther east across the ArkLaTex and toward the
lower Mississippi Valley, where a slight risk of excessive
rainfall and a slight risk of severe thunderstorms are in place.
This system will also bring some lighter rainfall across the
central Plains today and into the Missouri Valley on Monday,
moving into the Midwest and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

Across the Pacific Northwest, the arrival of a frontal system will
be accompanied with a round of light to moderate rainfall
spreading further inland from the coast today.  Meanwhile, snow
can be expected for the higher elevations, possibly a bit heavy at
times.  Colder air will rush in behind this clipper system,
gradually changing the rain to snow on Monday across the higher
elevations of the northern Rockies.  Some locally heavy snowfall
is likely for the northern Rockies.  This will be followed by a
gradual expansion of a swath of snow from near the Canadian border
of Montana Monday night to reaching into North Dakota by Tuesday
morning.  Rather strong and gusty winds will rush through the
northern Rockies and northern Plains behind this clipper system
with rapidly falling temperatures.  Elsewhere, a frontal system
passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast will bring
a mix of rain and snow showers to these areas through today and
into Monday.

The Southeast as well as much of the rest of the eastern/central
U.S. will continue to see above average conditions for late
November.  Forecast highs through Monday generally range in the
60s and 70s across the Southern Plains into the South; the 50s and
60s from the central Plains east through the central Missouri/Ohio
Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, and in the 40s and 50s across the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes.  Conditions will be more
seasonable across New England with highs in the 30s and 40s.
Portions of the West from the Great Basin northward will also
generally be above average through Sunday, with highs in the 40s
and 50s. The upper-low/storm system moving through the
Southwest/Four Corners will bring seasonably cool highs in the 60s
to the Desert Southwest with 40s and 50s into the Four Corners
region.  The system moving into the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies will bring some cooler temperatures mainly in the 40s by
Monday.  Conditions will be seasonable along the West Coast, with
60s and 70s for southern California and 50s and 60s from northern
California into the Pacific Northwest.

Kong/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$