636
FXUS01 KWBC 211913
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 22 2025 - 00Z Mon Nov 24 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flood threat for southern California and
western Arizona through Saturday; threat will shift to the
Southern Plains on Sunday...

...Record warmth for the South and Southeast today and Saturday...

An occluded low pressure system will continue to funnel moisture
into southern California and western Arizona through tonight, then
another occluded low will form right behind the first and bring
another surge of moisture to the region on Saturday. Persistent
showers with embedded thunderstorms are forecast for these areas
through Saturday, and anomalous moisture will support heavy rain
that could result in scattered instances of flash flooding,
especially near burn scars and urban areas. Precipitation chances
are expected to expand across Arizona and New Mexico Saturday
night as the low pressure system moves inland, and some wet snow
can also be expected over the highest elevations.

As the system progresses, precipitation chances will expand into
the central and southern Plains on Sunday. Southerly flow will
bring warm, moist air into the Plains ahead of the system,
creating favorable conditions for widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe, and
heavy rain will likely result in scattered instances of flash
flooding across portions of Central and North Texas and central
and southern Oklahoma. Some flash floods may have significant
impacts, and those in the southern Plains should remain weather
aware through the weekend. On the backside of the low pressure
system, mixed wintry precipitation and snow will be possible in
the higher terrain in Colorado.

Elsewhere, scattered showers and storms are expected across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through
Saturday with a low pressure system/frontal passage. This system
is forecast to push offshore by Sunday morning, but a portion of
the front is expected to stall over the Florida peninsula with
isolated showers through the end of the weekend. Across the
northern tier, a progressive low pressure system should push a
cold front across the north-Central and northeastern U.S. on
Saturday and Sunday. The frontal passage will be mostly dry, but
some precipitation will be possible for the Great Lakes and
northern New England. Precipitation will also return to the
Northwest on Sunday as a Pacific system gradually pushes onshore.
Precipitation should fall as rain along the coast and in the
valleys and as wintry mixed precipitation or snow in the mountains.

In terms of temperatures, most of the Lower 48 will see above
average temperatures through this weekend. The exception to this
will be across the Southwest where cloud cover and precipitation
will keep temperatures below average. Slightly below average
temperatures will also be possible for the Northeast and New
England in the wake of a frontal passage Saturday into Sunday.
Record warmth will continue for the South and Southeast through
Saturday as high temperatures push into the 80s with warm lows in
the 60s.


Dolan/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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