Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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493 FXUS01 KWBC 140755 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025 ...Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows possible for parts of Southern California today into the weekend... ...Widespread well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across the Plains today.... ...Damaging winds across portions of the Northern Rockies and High Plains today... A slow-moving upper-level low is currently amplifying and sliding southward along the California coast, funneling an atmospheric river of deep Pacific moisture into the state. This system is likely to deliver periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and high-elevation snow to Central and Southern California today and into weekend. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected across the urban and coastal areas of Southern California over the next 48 hours. The most significant amounts are forecast over the favored coastal-facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges, where localized totals could exceed 6 inches by the time the system begins to depart on Sunday. Excessive rainfall is the primary, life-threatening concern, with widespread flash flooding and debris flows likely across the vulnerable burn scar areas of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties. Additionally, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the higher elevations of the central and southern Sierra Nevada, where snow accumulations exceeding a foot, along with powerful winds, will create very difficult travel conditions. High Wind Warnings remain in effect across parts of the Northern Rockies and High Plains today. A tight pressure gradient along an advancing cold front will generate powerful, potentially damaging winds, with gusts forecast to reach as high as 85 mph. These winds may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Ahead of the the previously noted front, a pronounced surge of unseasonably warm air is resulting in near-record to record-breaking high temperatures across a broad region of the Central and Southern Plains. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 60s and 70s, up to 20-30 degrees above normal, across parts of the Northern and Central Plains. Farther south, temperatures will soar into the upper 70s and low 80s across Texas and Oklahoma. Numerous daily temperature records will likely be broken today from Texas to South Dakota. The combination of this unusual warmth, low relative humidity, and the strong, gusty winds will create favorable fire weather conditions. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, where any ignition could lead to rapid growth. Temperatures over the Northern and Central Plains will retreat from their well-above-normal highs over the weekend as the cold front pushes south. Conversely, the Southern Plains (including much of Texas and Oklahoma) will remain well above normal, with additional daily record high temperatures likely through the weekend. Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will prevail across the Eastern U.S. through Friday, with a rebound to above-normal temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast following an early-week chill. The next period of widespread precipitation will arrive this weekend as the frontal system advances out of the Central U.S. This front will bring the chance for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley, with a limited risk of strong wind gusts. As the system pivots east, a developing surface low will bring a mix of rain and a period of wintry precipitation to the interior Northeast on Sunday. Pereira Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$