397
FXUS01 KWBC 121845
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Nov 13 2025 - 00Z Sat Nov 15 2025

...Temperatures moderate in the East; West and Central U.S. warm
up...

...Snow expected to continue across Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England...

...Strong cyclone developing off the West Coast will bring heavy
rainfall, heavy mountain snow and strong winds to portions of
California beginning tonight...

Much of the colder air associated with very deep upper-level
trough across the east has filled and or lifted away into the
Maritime Atlantic.  However, the longer wave remains over the
Great Lakes providing some ascent for a transient surface low and
solid chance of light rain and mixed snow across the Lower Great
Lakes and into the Interior Northeast today into tomorrow.  A more
tempered cold push behind the front will allow from some weaker
Lake Effect plumes and lighter mountain snows into Friday as well.


While the northeast remains slightly below average, the stronger
upstream ridging is starting to take a stronger hold across the
West into the Central U.S. Much of the West and Central US will
see high temperatures from the 60s/70s today increase to the 70s
for Thursday into Friday with 80s in the Southern Plains, running
from 10-20 degrees above normal with locations in the Northern
Plains nearing 30 degrees above average by Friday.


While improving nearly all locations across the nation, California
will see conditions deteriorating starting tonight.  A highly
amplified upper-level trough will help to develop a strong surface
cyclone well offshore of northwest California/southwest Oregon and
deeper sub-tropical moisture/atmospheric River channel will be
directed initially along the northern California coast with
increased moisture flux intersecting the terrain.  There is a High
Wind Warning for coastal regions from San Francisco Bay north
toward Cape Mendocino; sustained winds of 25-35 mph may be
accompanied by 60 mph gusts.

The cold front and moisture stream will then slide from Central
California on Thursday/Thursday night and eventually into Southern
California Friday.  From a hazards perspective, strong winds will
accompany the stream of moisture and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of
4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Northwest California
tonight.  This upgrades to a Slight Risk (2 of 4) Thursday across
San Francisco Bay as well as the low to middle slopes of the
Northern Sierra Nevada Range.  By Friday, the Slight Risk will
reach the Transverse Ranges of Southern California.

Initially, warm air will keep freezing levels high across much of
the terrain but by later Thursday, levels will drop but also will
the focus of the moisture plume.  As such, 4-8" are expected for
portions of the Northern Sierra Nevada Range through Friday and
therefore a Winter Weather Advisory is in place from middle of the
range and north.  However, 6-12" is expected above 9,000 ft while
up to 18" is expected from central to southern Sierra Nevada Range
late Thursday and through Friday in the highest peaks and along
with the winds (30-40+ mph), a Winter Storm Warning is in place
from Central to Southern Sierra Range through Friday.

Gallina


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$