640
FXUS01 KWBC 092021
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Nov 09 2025

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 10 2025 - 00Z Wed Nov 12 2025

...Frigid airmass brings sharply colder weather across the eastern
two-thirds of the country and record low temperatures through the
Southeast including all of Florida by Tuesday morning...

...Snowy, very cold and windy from the Great Lakes to interior New
England and west slopes of central Appalachians...

...Critical fire weather across southern Texas into tonight...

An unusually strong surge of polar air is well under way into the
mid-section of the country this Sunday afternoon.  This polar
plunge will be in stark contrast with the increasingly mild
conditions across the West and across the East for the remainder
of today.  The strong temperature contrast between the cold in the
central and the warmth in eastern U.S. will work in concert with a
deepening upper-level trough to intensify a low pressure system
which will progressively move through the Northeast on Monday.  A
swath of wet snow is forecast to follow the northern edge of the
low pressure system as far north as northern Maine this evening,
and as far south as the western slopes of the central Appalachians
into the Ohio Valley beginning this evening and lasting into much
of Monday.  Total snow accumulations as much as 6 to locally 12
inches are possible across east-central West Virginia.  Meanwhile,
a cold rain across the lower Great Lakes should change over to
periods of lake-effect snow tonight and continue through Monday as
colder air arrives behind the low pressure system.  Areas near the
southern shore of Lake Michigan including the lake-front region of
Chicago could be impacted by a period of locally enhanced snowfall
tonight when a smaller scale low pressure system could form over
the relatively warm Lake Michigan.  By early Tuesday, much milder
air coming from the northern Plains should change the snow to rain
near Lake Michigan before ending, and possibly change the
lake-effect snow to rain near the shores of the Lake Eire and Lake
Ontario.

Along the East Coast, broad southerly flow ahead of the
intensifying low pressure system has brought anomalous warmth into
the 70s as far north as Virginia Sunday afternoon.  The best
chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the
southern half of New England into tonight.  A sharp cold front is
sweeping through the East Coast and then out into the Atlantic
tonight with only passing showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or
two up and down the East Coast.  This will be followed by sharply
falling temperatures and increasingly blustery winds from the west
on Monday.  High temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing
mark on Monday along the central and central Appalachians while
below freezing temperatures are forecast to reach deep into the
South by Monday morning.  By Tuesday morning, record low
temperatures will be common across the entire Southeast including
all of Florida where below freezing readings are forecast along
the eastern Gulf Coast and as far south as northern Florida.
Freeze Watches and Warnings are in effect for many areas from the
southern Plains through the Deep South, Southeast and into the
Mid-Atlantic, and as far south as northern Florida.

In the West, an upper ridge will be amplifying as the polar plunge
occurs in the central and eastern U.S.  The upper ridge will
expand the unseasonably warm temperatures into the northern High
Plains by Monday.  Meanwhile, increasing winds and dry conditions
behind the cold front are forecast to support critical fire
weather conditions into tonight for portions of southern Texas
under gusty winds per the Storm Prediction Center.  In addition,
Red flag warnings are in effect across southern Texas into
southwestern Louisiana.  Across the Pacific Northwest, rain
associated with the next frontal system from the Pacific is
forecast to arrive later tonight, spreading into far northern
Rockies on Monday.  Meanwhile, the anomalous warmth in the West is
forecast to reach into much of the High Plains and up across the
central and northern Plains on Tuesday behind a warm front.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$