493
FXUS01 KWBC 140755
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 14 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 16 2025

...Heavy rainfall likely with dangerous flooding and debris flows
possible for parts of Southern California today into the weekend...

...Widespread well above-normal to record-breaking warmth across
the Plains today....

...Damaging winds across portions of the Northern Rockies and High
Plains today...

A slow-moving upper-level low is currently amplifying and sliding
southward along the California coast, funneling an atmospheric
river of deep Pacific moisture into the state. This system is
likely to deliver periods of heavy rain, strong winds, and
high-elevation snow to Central and Southern California today and
into weekend. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are
expected across the urban and coastal areas of Southern California
over the next 48 hours. The most significant amounts are forecast
over the favored coastal-facing slopes of the Transverse Ranges,
where localized totals could exceed 6 inches by the time the
system begins to depart on Sunday. Excessive rainfall is the
primary, life-threatening concern, with widespread flash flooding
and debris flows likely across the vulnerable burn scar areas of
Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties.

Additionally, Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect for the
higher elevations of the central and  southern Sierra Nevada,
where snow accumulations exceeding a foot, along with powerful
winds, will create very difficult travel conditions.

High Wind Warnings remain in effect across parts of the Northern
Rockies and High Plains today. A tight pressure gradient along an
advancing cold front will generate powerful, potentially damaging
winds, with gusts forecast to reach as high as 85 mph. These winds
may move loose debris, damage property and cause power outages.
Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Ahead of the the previously noted front, a pronounced surge of
unseasonably warm air is resulting in near-record to
record-breaking high temperatures across a broad region of the
Central and Southern Plains. Highs are forecast to reach the upper
60s and 70s, up to 20-30 degrees above normal, across parts of the
Northern and Central Plains. Farther south, temperatures will soar
into the upper 70s and low 80s across Texas and Oklahoma. Numerous
daily temperature records will likely be broken today from Texas
to South Dakota.  The combination of this unusual warmth, low
relative humidity, and the strong, gusty winds will create
favorable fire weather conditions. Therefore, Red Flag Warnings
are in effect for portions of Nebraska and South Dakota, where any
ignition could lead to rapid growth.

Temperatures over the Northern and Central Plains will retreat
from their well-above-normal highs over the weekend as the cold
front pushes south.  Conversely, the Southern Plains (including
much of Texas and Oklahoma) will remain well above normal, with
additional daily record high temperatures likely through the
weekend.

Mostly dry and seasonable conditions will prevail across the
Eastern U.S. through Friday, with a rebound to above-normal
temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast following an
early-week chill. The next period of widespread precipitation will
arrive this weekend as the frontal system advances out of the
Central U.S. This front will bring the chance for scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Upper Ohio Valley, with
a limited risk of strong wind gusts.  As the system pivots east, a
developing surface low will bring a mix of rain and a period of
wintry precipitation to the interior Northeast on Sunday.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$