798
FXUS01 KWBC 221920
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 23 2025 - 00Z Tue Nov 25 2025

...Flash flood threat will shift from the southern Plains Sunday
towards the ArkLaTex/Mid-South on Monday...

...Pacific system to bring lower elevation rain, locally heavy
mountain snow to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies Sunday
into Monday...

...One more day of record warmth for the Southeast today while
above average temperatures continue for much of the
eastern/central U.S....

A deep upper-low/accompanying surface Pacific system has begun to
move eastward today (Saturday) over the Southwest/Four Corners
region with widespread showers/storms and mountain snow expected.
These storms will bring locally heavy downpours to the Arizona
desert this afternoon with some isolated flash flooding possible.
The bulk of the precipitation will spread into the
central/southern Rockies during the overnight hours with some
locally heavy mountain snow possible for some of the mountain
ranges of central Colorado south through north-central New Mexico.
Then, on Sunday, the system will emerge onto the Plains with moist
Gulf return flow ahead of the system helping to fuel widespread
showers and thunderstorms along an eastward moving cold front.
Repeated storms moving roughly parallel to the boundary as well as
moisture to fuel heavy downpours will bring a risk for scattered
flash flooding, with the greatest threat highlighted by a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) stretching from
south-central Oklahoma southwest through the Texas hill Country.
Recent heavy rains through this region may also heighten the flood
threat. The system will continue eastward overnight Sunday and
into the day Monday with the cold front and likely still ongoing
storms shifting towards the ArkLaTex and the Mid-South. Another
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place for a similar set up
of repeated, training storms bringing heavy downpours and a flash
flood threat. This system will also bring some lighter rainfall
into the central Plains Sunday and Missouri Valley by Monday.

An upper-wave will bring a frontal system lingering along the
Pacific Northwest producing coastal precipiation today inland
overnight and into the day Sunday. Lower elevations will see light
to moderate rainfall with snow for the higher mountain elevations,
possibly a bit heavy at times. The precipitation will then spread
into the northern Rockies later Sunday night and then into the
northern Plains during the day Monday and into Monday night. Some
locally heavy snowfall is likely for the northern Rockies, and
snow is also expected for portions of the northern Plains, with at
least light accumulations forecast. Elsewhere, a frontal system
passing from the Great Lakes to the interior Northeast Sunday into
Monday will bring a mix of rain and snow showers. Thunderstorms
will continue today for south Texas in vicinity of a stationary
frontal boundary.

One more day of record warmth is expected across much of the
Southeast today as highs will reach into the low 80s for many
locations.  A cold front will bring temperatures down a few
degrees on Sunday. However, this region as well as much of the
rest of the eastern/central U.S. will continue to see above
average, generally mild temperatures for late November. Forecast
highs through Monday generally range in the 60s and 70s across the
Southern Plains into the South; the 50s and 60s from the central
Plains east through the central Missouri/Ohio Valleys into the
Mid-Atlantic, and in the 40s and 50s across the northern Plains
into the Great Lakes. Conditions will be more seasonable across
New England with highs in the 30s and 40s. Portions of the West
from the Great Basin northward will also generally be above
average through Sunday, with highs in the 40s and 50s. The
upper-low/storm system moving through the Southwest/Four Corners
will bring seasonably cool highs in the 60s to the Desert
Southwest with 40s and 50s into the Four Corners region. The
system moving into the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will
bring some cooler temperatures mainly in the 40s by Monday.
Conditions will be seasonable along the West Coast, with 60s and
70s for southern California and 50s and 60s from northern
California into the Pacific Northwest.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$