524
FXUS01 KWBC 301914
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 31 2025 - 00Z Tue Sep 02 2025

...Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected from the Gulf
Coast to the Plains and southern Rockies this weekend with some
potential for flash flooding...

...Dry conditions with seasonal to below-average temperatures
remaining across much of the Eastern U.S. through the holiday
weekend...

...Heat builds across the Western U.S. after a reprieve from
recent monsoonal rains...

A stalled frontal boundary stretching from southern Texas along
the Gulf Coast will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms
through the remainder of the long holiday weekend. With a very
moist atmosphere in place, storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall rates, and the potential for repeated development
raises concerns for isolated to scattered flash flooding. The
flash flooding risk is expected to be highest from southeastern
New Mexico into eastern Texas this evening and overnight, before
expanding farther south across Texas and southwest into southern
New Mexico on Sunday. By Monday, this threat should begin to
diminish as the front settles farther south and drier air moves
into the region.

Farther north, a slow-moving upper-level disturbance will trigger
showers and thunderstorms across the central Plains this evening
and overnight. This system will shift very slowly east into the
mid to lower Missouri Valley on Sunday and continue through
Monday. Due to its slow pace and the potential for repeated rounds
of rain over the same areas, there is an ongoing concern for
isolated to scattered flash flooding. Cloud cover and widespread
rain will also help suppress daytime temperatures, which are
expected to remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal across parts of
the central Plains and Missouri Valley this weekend.

Across the Ohio Valley and along much of the East Coast north of
Florida, high pressure will remain in control through the rest of
the weekend and into early next week. As a result, conditions will
stay dry, with temperatures near or slightly below seasonal
averages for much of the eastern third of the Lower 48.

In contrast, the western U.S. will see a warming trend, with
above-normal temperatures expanding across the region.
Temperatures are expected to increase to well-above normal across
parts of the interior Northwest, with daytime highs approaching or
exceeding record values across parts of eastern Washington and
northern Idaho by Monday. Outside of the Southwest - where the
chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase early in the
week - most of the West will remain dry through the period.

Pereira

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$