128
FXUS01 KWBC 200724
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 20 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 22 2025

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern California, the Central/Southern Plains, and the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern California on Friday...

...Light snow over parts of the southern Utah Mountains, the
Colorado Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains...

On Thursday, low pressure and the associated front over the
Southwest will move eastward to the Tennessee Valley by Saturday.
Moisture streaming northward of the Gulf will produce heavy rain
and thunderstorms over parts of the South Plains on Thursday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through
Friday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible.  The
associated heavy rain will create numerous areas where flash
flooding events are possible, and many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers.

In addition, heavy rain and thunderstorms will impact parts of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being
the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will
move eastward to southeastern Canada. The system will produce
light rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the
Upper Great Lakes through late Thursday night.

Also, on Thursday, rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Overnight Thursday,
rain will expand into the Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic.
Moreover, the rain will move into parts of the Northeast on
Friday, then wind down over the region on Saturday.

Meanwhile, a front will move ashore over the West Coast, bringing
light rain to parts of the Pacific Northwest and California. The
low will stream moisture into Southern California, producing heavy
rain on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern
California through Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will
cause mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

As the storm moves inland, rain and the highest elevation snow
will develop over parts of the intermountain West. The associated
area of low pressure will then move to northwestern Mexico by
Friday morning. The low will continue to stream moisture into
Southern California, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Southern California from Friday into Saturday morning.  The
associated heavy rain will cause mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars being the
most vulnerable. Moreover, on Friday into Saturday, a weak system
will begin moving into the Pacific Northwest, producing light rain
and highest-elevation snow.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$