239
FXUS01 KWBC 230815
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 23 2024 - 12Z Wed Sep 25 2024

...Threat of heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms
will slowly shift from the southern Plains this morning to the
Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes on Tuesday
into early Wednesday...

...Watching the western Caribbean Sea for tropical cyclone
formation that could bring strengthening winds and passing squally
downpours into the Florida Keys Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning...

A low pressure consolidating over the southern Plains along a
slow-moving front is forecast to move northeastward through the
Mid-Mississippi Valley by tonight, then across the Midwest and
Ohio Valley on Tuesday.  Heavy showers and some severe
thunderstorms this morning across the southern Plains are expected
to taper off as today progresses but the threat of heavy rain and
locally strong to severe thunderstorms will increase from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest in the mean time.  By
Tuesday, the center of the low will pass through the Midwest
toward the lower Great Lakes, the threat of heavy rain and
embedded strong thunderstorms will then develop well ahead of the
low across the Ohio Valley, mainly from Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.  By early Wednesday, many areas across the lower
Great Lakes and the interior East Coast will be enshrouded by
showers and embedded thunderstorms.  These showers and storms will
extend farther southwest near/along the trailing front across the
interior Gulf Coast states.  Showers and periods of rain will also
move across the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians
and upstate New York in association with another wave of low
pressure near the front.

The upper-level low behind the slow-moving front will slide across
the central Plains, allowing much of the western U.S. to remain
dry along with a warming trend for the next couple of days.
Meanwhile, colder air will remain entrenched across the Plains
behind the front but 90s will be common in the afternoon across
the South and into the interior Southeast today and Tuesday ahead
of the front.  The outer edge of a Pacific cyclone centered over
the Gulf of Alaska will only bring some light rain into
northwestern Washington State this morning.

Farther south into the tropics, the National Hurricane Center
continues to watch the western Caribbean Sea for potential
tropical cyclone formation.  Computer models now appear to be in
good agreement for the system to move northwestward and reach the
Yucatan Channel by the time the short-range forecast period ends
Wednesday morning.  This means that the Florida Keys could
experience strengthening winds along with passing squally
downpours from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  Please refer
to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this
system.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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