406
FXUS01 KWBC 040819
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 04 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 06 2026

...Moderate risk of excessive rainfall today along the lower Texas
coast while a slight risk extends from the central Gulf Coast
through the Southeast...

...A long duration October heatwave building across central and
southern California, and spreading into the Great Basin...

Heavy rainfall threat will remain focused along the Gulf Coast and
across the Southeast, while an anomalous October heatwave builds
across the western U.S. The lingering wet weather pattern is the
result of continued interaction of a tropical wave in the Gulf
with a cool and dry air mass that has settled across the eastern
two-thirds of the country. The Weather Prediction Center now
highlights a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for the lower
Texas coast for today and tonight as additional heavy rain bands
forming along a stationary convergence zone just offshore are
expected to swing onshore. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rainfall
near a wavy stationary front is forecast to overspread the central
Gulf Coast through the Southeast and into the Carolinas. The
heaviest forecast rainfall remains near the Gulf Shores to the
western portion of the Florida Panhandle where a maximum of 7
inches is possible with the passage of a convection cluster. Flood
Watches are in effect from coastal Mississippi to the Florida
Panhandle. The heavy rainfall threat will gradually decrease late
tonight and into Monday morning for the Southeast and along the
Gulf Coast as the front nudges farther south. However, heavy
rainbands associated with the stationary offshore convergence zone
will be slow to depart the lower Texas coast through much of
Monday.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system sweeping across the Canadian
border will fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Great Lakes this morning. A strong cold front trailing from the
intensifying system could bring heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms into interior New England by early Monday morning.
Across the Mid-Atlantic, showers behind a cold front early this
morning will move off the coast as the cool air mass from the Ohio
Valley to the Northeast takes over. A high pressure system across
the Great Lakes to the Midwest will build eastward, delivering
fine and cool fall weather for much of the eastern U.S. Monday and
Tuesday except the Sunshine state where showers and thunderstorms
associated with the wavy front persist.

While the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous
ridge of high pressure will build a late season October heatwave
across the western U.S. through this week. Temperatures will run
15 to 20 degrees above normal, bringing highs well into the 90s
toward the coast and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in the
Central Valley of California soaring into the lower 100s.
Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San
Diego urban areas will provide little relief through the heatwave.
Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for much of Southern
California, with Heat Advisories extending across the Central
Valley and Bay Area. The heat will then expand farther northeast
over the next couple of days, with high temperatures in the 80s
and near 90 degrees emerging across the Great Basin. A few daily
temperature records could fall over the next few days in
California and the Great Basin as a result.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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