744
FXUS01 KWBC 111813
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 12 2025 - 00Z Tue Oct 14 2025

...Heavy rain and flash flooding risk continues for the
Southwest/Four Corners region this weekend as tropical moisture
flows in from the Pacific...

...Coastal storm to bring heavy rain, coastal flooding, high surf,
dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds up much of the East Coast
this weekend...

...Storm system to bring lower elevation rain and higher elevation
snow, heavy at times, to much of the western U.S. this weekend and
into early next week...


A multi-day heavy rain and flash flooding event continues this
weekend in the Southwest/Four Corners region as a slow moving
upper-trough creeps eastward and moisture associated with the
remnants of Priscilla and Raymond in the Pacific flows northward.
The influx of extremely anomalous moisture is contributing to
heavy downpours with repeated rounds of storms capable of 2"+
rainfall totals. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) covering much of the Southwest north into the Four
Corners region today (Saturday) where scattered instances of flash
flooding will remain a threat, especially for more vulnerable
terrain such as slot canyons and burn scars. The threat will then
focus further south on Sunday with a Slight Risk covering
southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Unfortunately, the
threat will continue into early next week as upper-energy
reinforces the troughing overhead and brings yet another round of
storms, with Slight Risks focused on southwestern Colorado and
continuing for southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.

Further north, the upper-trough and associated surface frontal
system will bring expanding precipitation chances across much of
the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West this weekend as
well. Moderate to locally heavy rain will be possible for lower
elevation areas, with the heaviest rainfall and an isolated threat
for flash flooding expected today through portions of the Great
Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Winter-weather related advisories are in place for higher
elevations of the northern Rockies and Cascades where snowfall
totals of 3-6", locally as high as 12", will be possible. Some of
the higher mountain valleys will also see snow mix in, with light
accumulations possible. Precipitation across the Intermountain
West should begin to taper off through Sunday and especially into
Monday, but the aforementioned reinforcing upper-energy will drop
southward along the West Coast bringing another Pacific system and
a renewed round of precipitation for the Pacific Northwest. This
system will continue southward Monday and bring moisture into
northern and central California as well. Heavy rainfall is
forecast along favorable upslope areas of the coastal and Sierra
ranges with isolated flash flooding possible. Heavy snowfall is
also expected for higher elevations of the Sierras.

Meanwhile, a coastal low strengthening this afternoon off the
southeastern Atlantic coast will bring significant impacts to much
of the East Coast this weekend and into early next week. Heavy
rainfall is expected to expand northward along the coast, with a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall today along the coastal
Carolinas for the threat of some scattered flash flooding, and a
continued threat of isolated flash flooding from the coastal
Mid-Atlantic northward into portions of southern New England
Sunday into Monday. Coastal flood-related Advisories stretch from
northern Florida to New England, with a particular concern for
portions of the Mid-Atlantic where the combination of strong
onshore winds, high surf, and high astronomical tides may lead to
major coastal flooding. This would flood roadways and potentially
affect some homes and businesses near the waterfront. High surf
and rip currents are also expected along many East Coast beaches,
and will likely lead to areas of beach erosion. There is also a
threat for significant wind gusts, in excess of 55 mph, especially
along coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England,
which could lead to scattered power outages.

Elsewhere, an upper-wave/surface cold front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest today through Sunday, as well as to portions of the
central/southern Plains Monday. Well above average highs by as
much as 10-20 degrees are expected across much of the
Midwest/Mississippi Valley/Plains this weekend, with highs into
the 70s and 80s for most locations. A cold front coming in from
the northwest will bring a sharp drop in temperatures for portions
of the northern Plains Sunday and into the central/southern Plains
Monday. Much of the western U.S. will be below average with
upper-toughing overhead, and highs generally in the 50s outside of
the deserts, where 70s and 80s are expected. Generally average to
a bit below average Fall conditions continue along the East Coast
with widespread 60s for highs.

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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