848
FXUS01 KWBC 020812
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 04 2026

...Another day of excessive rainfall threat across eastern Texas
to eastern Oklahoma before shifting to the Gulf Coast and the
Southeast this weekend...

...October heatwave building across central and southern
California will spread northeast into the Great Basin during the
weekend...


A wet weather pattern lingering across the Southern Plains will
gradually shift eastward into the Gulf Coast and the Southeast
this weekend as an anomalous October heatwave builds across the
western U.S. This pattern will deliver another day of moderate to
heavy rainfall near a stationary front across eastern Texas to
eastern Oklahoma where the Weather Prediction Center maintains a
slight risk of excessive rainfall for today and into tonight.
Thereafter, a tropical wave moving westward through the Caribbean
will bring increasingly unsettled weather through the Gulf during
the weekend, with showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering
along the Gulf Coast where as much as a few inches of rainfall
totals can be expected near the immediate coast. Meanwhile, the
weather pattern has allowed the front to be more progressive
across the northern tier of the country with a round of showers
and a few thunderstorms moving through the Midwest and the
Northeast today. These showers and storms will reach the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and then linger into Sunday as a wave of
low pressure develops along this front. An upper-level wave will
also help shift the heavy rainfall threat into the Southeast on
Sunday.

As the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge
of high pressure will help build an October heatwave across the
western U.S. through the weekend. Heat advisories and excessive
heat warnings are in effect for portions of central and southern
California. Saturday is forecast to be the hottest day of the
period, running 15 to 20 degrees above normal, pushing coastal
areas well into the 90s and valleys as high as 107F. Warm nights
will provide minimal relief. The heat will then spread further
northeast during the weekend, with record-challenging high
temperatures in the 80s and near 90 degrees emerging across the
Great Basin. In contrast, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are
in effect near the Canadian border of the upper Midwest and upper
Great Lakes. The associated cool airmass will then overspread much
of the Northeast to deliver fine and cool fall weather. Meanwhile,
a round of showers will precede a low pressure system moving
across the Northern Plains this weekend followed by gusty
northwesterly winds as cooler and drier air moves in behind a cold
front.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php






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