


Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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866 FXUS01 KWBC 131959 PMDSPD Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Valid 00Z Tue Oct 14 2025 - 00Z Thu Oct 16 2025 ...Coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast should taper off overnight and Tuesday... ...Storm system will bring heavy rain and snow to the West, especially California... Coastal flooding is ongoing across portions of the East Coast as a low pressure system in the western Atlantic brings persistent and strong onshore winds to coastal regions. This combined with high astronomical tides could lead to additional beach erosion. Rip currents and high surf also continue, along with scattered to widespread showers in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High winds are lessening already as the low starts to pull away, with only Wind Advisories left for Cape Cod and Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. However, Coastal Flood Warnings and Advisories continue into this (Monday) evening before expiring as the potential for hazardous conditions decreases. A strong upper-level low is forecast to drop south along the West Coast tonight and push into the Great Basin over the next couple of days, along with a surface low/frontal system. These features will provide support for precipitation as ample moisture interacts with them. Marginal (level 1/4) to Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall causing flash flooding are in place through Tuesday across parts of California as the moisture plume makes its way across. The embedded Slight Risks over the Transverse Range/Peninsular Range of California show areas where heavier rainfall totals may occur and where burn scars may cause particularly higher risks of flooding. Isolated severe weather could also occur per the Storm Prediction Center. Farther inland into the Sierra Nevada, precipitation should fall as snow in the higher elevations, with 1-2 feet of snow likely and snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour possible. Snow levels could fall to 5500-7000 feet in parts of California/Nevada. Some snow is forecast to spread across the Intermountain West as the low pivots east, along with lower elevation scattered rain showers on Tuesday and into Wednesday. Farther east, moist inflow that has some connection with dissipated East Pacific tropical systems will continue to flow into the Four Corners states. Through tonight, Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall are in place for southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico and into southwestern Colorado, with a surrounding Marginal Risk. A Marginal Risk lingers into Tuesday for additional convection across New Mexico. Isolated severe weather, especially for high winds and hail, is possible in similar areas. Elsewhere, rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Northern/Central Plains into the Midwest over the next couple of days. The upper trough/low out West will lead to much cooler than average temperatures there. Especially on Tuesday, cool maximum temperatures may set records across California. Meanwhile warmer temperatures in the 70s and 80s (locally 90s in Texas) are forecast from the Southern Plains into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley by Tuesday, and north into the central Plains by Wednesday. Cooler than average temperatures in the East should moderate closer to normal over the next couple of days as the cloudy and showery weather from the low pulls away. Tate Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php $$