974
FXUS01 KWBC 091950
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sun Jun 09 2024

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 10 2024 - 00Z Wed Jun 12 2024

...Thunderstorms to be most active across the High Plains into
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the
Southeast...

...Hot weather to begin returning to parts of the West early this
week...

The same cold front that was associated with severe thunderstorms
and areas of flash flooding from eastern Colorado into southern
Missouri on Saturday will continue to slowly move south through
Monday night before stalling near the Gulf Coast. Low level
convergence near the front and a region of anomalous moisture
extending from the Southeast into the southern Plains and
northward into the northern High Plains will help support numerous
showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A few of
the storms will be capable of becoming severe and/or producing
flash flooding as highlighted by Marginal and Slight Risks of
severe thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall generated by the Storm
Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center. Temperatures will
be pleasantly cool north of the front, with high temperature
departures expected to be 10-20 degrees below average across the
southern High Plains and Great Lakes region on Monday.
Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday but remain below average
from Texas/Oklahoma into the middle Mississippi Valley, Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic region. Cloud cover from scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms will help to keep temperatures down for
parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast today, but a drier trend is
likely through Tuesday for these areas.

An upper level trough across the western U.S. will be preceded by
a weak cold front at the surface which will move eastward through
Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from eastern
Wyoming into adjacent portions of South Dakota and western
Nebraska on Monday as the cold front moves into the Great Plains.
The cold front will not make much southern progress across the
western U.S. however, and a shift toward zonal flow in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere will be accompanied by warming
temperatures through mid-week for the West. High temperatures are
expected to reach dangerously hot levels for portions of the
Sacramento and San Joaquin Valley in California as well as
southern Nevada into southern Arizona. Excessive Heat Watches have
been posted for these regions in anticipation of the expanding
heat early this week with forecast departures ranging from 10 to
20 degrees above average on Tuesday.

Otto


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$