337
FXUS01 KWBC 281814
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Valid 00Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 00Z Mon Dec 01 2025

...Heavy lake-effect snow will continue across the Great Lakes
region into early Saturday morning...

...Developing major winter storm over the northern Plains will
impact the Midwest and Great Lakes region this weekend with
widespread heavy snowfall and hazardous travel conditions...

...A wintry pattern will bring well below average, chilly
temperatures to much of the eastern and central U.S. heading into
the weekend...

Locally heavy lake-effect snow is expected to continue tonight
through early Saturday morning across the Great Lakes region in
the wake of a slowly departing winter storm lifting through
southeast Canada. The heaviest additional accumulations should be
downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, with portions of western
New York in particular seeing an additional 6 to 12 inches of
snow. Locally gusty winds and poor visibility will continue to
make for difficult travel conditions, but the lake-effect snow
should gradually taper down by early Saturday as cold high
pressure moves overhead.

Meanwhile, a new major winter storm is already organizing across
the northern Plains as energy ejecting out of the northern Rockies
focuses cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. This low center
will gradually strengthen tonight across the central Plains and
then advance into the middle Mississippi Valley by late Saturday.
From there, this storm system is expected to deepen further and
track up across the Lower Great Lakes region through Sunday. The
result is expected to be an expansive swath of heavy snow which
will initially track across Montana and the Dakotas through this
evening, but then become more focused across the Midwest tonight
and Saturday. A rather widespread axis of 6 to 12 inches of
snowfall can be expected for the Midwest, with the heaviest
amounts generally over portions of Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin
where as much as 12 to 15+ inches of snow can be expected. These
snowfall totals may locally approach a record-setting snowfall
event for the month of November for multiple major metropolitan
areas.

Heavy snow will overspread much of Lower Michigan and adjacent
areas of the Lower Great Lakes region by Saturday night and
continue into early Sunday, with snow accumulations here of
locally 6 to 12+ inches. As the low center arrives and approaches
the Northeast, some wintry precipitation will also advance into
some interior areas of New England as well and there may be at
least a few inches of snow accumulation here where sufficient cold
air will be in place. The end result of this multi-day
post-Thanksgiving major winter storm will be significant impacts
to travel both on the ground and through the air given
expectations of heavy snowfall rates, gusty winds and poor
visibility.

Farther to the south on the warm side of this next storm system,
moist return flow from the Gulf of America will facilitate rounds
of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the southern
Plains eastward into the northwest Gulf Coast region and areas of
the Mid-South. Locally heavy rainfall is expected across portions
of eastern Texas and western Louisiana where areas of stronger
thunderstorm activity are expected. A few isolated instances of
flash flooding and severe weather will be possible across these
areas.

Generally, a very wintry pattern has grip on the country, and
therefore many areas of the central and eastern U.S. this weekend
will see temperatures well below normal. Multiple surges of very
cold air dropping south from Canada will be reinforcing this, and
especially in the wake of this next winter storm that traverses
the Midwest and Great Lakes. Much of the mild weather will be
confined to the Southwest U.S. where it will be dry, although it
will warm up across portions of the Southeast and especially
Florida by late in the weekend as warm southerly flow arrives
ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the Midwest and
Great Lakes winter storm low track.

Orrison


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$