951
FXUS66 KSTO 032002
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1202 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Quick moving system brings showers/isolated thunderstorm
   chances, breezy southerly winds and light mountain snow
   showers today

 - Drying and warming trend Wednesday through the weekend, with
   periods of breezy north to east winds

 - Potential for a return to active weather next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today:
A quick moving system is traversing the Northern California
today. As of 10 AM PST, radar imagery depicts light to locally
moderate precipitation pushing eastward along the associated cold
front. Snow level will remain generally above 6,500 feet. The
better instability is favored west of our forecast area; however,
there is some shallow instability capable of produce brief heavy
downpours and a low chance (10% or less) of isolated thunderstorms
with colder air aloft this afternoon over the Delta and portions
of southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley.
Motorists should plan ahead for slick road conditions through the
day today. Showers are expected to taper off this evening/tonight
as dry air mass moves into the area in the wake of the system.
Tonight into Wednesday, areas of valley fog are possible with
clearing skies.

In addition, breezy southerly winds have been observed along the
front. Expect the breezier conditions over the foothills and
mountain, especially over the Sierra Crest with gusts of 20-35+
mph.


Wednesday-Weekend:
High pressures will builds back in on Wednesday and then dominate
through the end of the week and over the weekend, resulting in
multiple days of dry and stable conditions. On Wednesday, a period
of breezy north to east winds will develop behind the passage of
the weather system. Strongest northerly winds are currently
favored along and west of Interstate 5 on Wednesday. Locally
breezy northeasterly/downslope winds develop each overnight
through mid morning period in the mountains and foothills,
especially for the typical wind-prone locations and northeast/east
to southwest/west aligned drainages. For these areas, strongest
winds are expected late Friday into Saturday. Temperatures will
warm from near normal to above normal for early November
climatology toward the end of the week.


Looking Ahead:
Ensemble guidance is indicating the potential for a return to
active weather next week, promoting heavy rain and heavy mountain
snow. Looking at the chance of IVT > 250 kg/m/s the following week
Nov 10-16, confidence is moderate to high in wet weather for mid
Nov. WPC`s 8-14 day outlook (Nov 10-16) also has Northern interior
California in a slight to moderate risk for heavy rain and a
moderate risk for mountain snow. High uncertainty remains
regarding the timing and specific details at this moment. Be sure
to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and check
back for updates as we get closer.


&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR to VFR visibility from showers until 03z, impacting
Valley sites from around 19z to 02z this afternoon and lingering
showers over the mountains. Ceilings will be around 3000-5000 feet
in areas of showers but VFR ceilings elsewhere. After 12z
Wednesday, reduced visibilities to IFR conditions are possible for
MOD/SCK with isolated areas of mist and fog from 12z into 18z
Wed. Winds generally southerly and less 12 kts into 21z Tuesday
before winds weaken and turn northerly north of I-80 and towards
the east south of I-80 ahead of widespread northerly winds after
09z Wed around 8 to 12 kts. Snow levels 6500-7500 feet into this
evening.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$