355
FXUS66 KSTO 161934
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1234 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2026


.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions continue through the
    week ahead.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

We continue to see clear skies across California this afternoon,
with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s for
daytime highs. Winds will start to increase this evening around
the Delta helping to bring cooler conditions after sunset.
Overnight temperatures drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s around
the Delta, southern Sacramento Valley, and northern San Joaquin
Valley while other areas in the Valley and foothills drop to the
mid 60s. Cooler conditions are expected in the higher terrain.
HRRR and HREF guidance picks up on the potential for stratus
during the morning hours within the Delta and parts of the
southern Sac Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley. The chances
are 20-40 percent at this time. If this where to occur we could
expect lower cloud ceilings overnight and into the mid morning
hours tomorrow.

None the less, the ridge pattern aloft continues to dominate the
weather pattern through the week ahead. Temperatures fluctuate
around seasonal averages, with breezy conditions at times within
the Delta during the evening hours. Afternoon humidity conditions
in the 30-50 percent range across the Valley, outside a pocket of
drier conditions over the northern Sacramento Valley through the
week. Next weekend and beyond, models diverge on solutions of the
pattern aloft. Some favor (70 percent) a continued ridge over the
SW United States, while others favor (30 percent) a westerly to
southwesterly flow. A continued ridge would keep conditions as is
right now, with seasonal highs and dry conditions. A W to SW flow
would increase the potential for monsoonal moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail for the most part over the next 24 hours at
all TAF sites. Near the vicinity of the Delta there is a chance
for low stratus developing, with MVFR conditions due to 1000-3000
ft ceilings in those locations. While MVFR conditions are not
expected in the Sacramento area, there is a slight but uncertain
chance for these conditions to push into the metro area as well.
Best chances between 12z and 18z Monday. Winds generally below 12
kts at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours, but gusts up to 30
kts in the vicinity of the Delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$