529
FXUS66 KSTO 040833
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1233 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Mostly dry weather, above normal temperatures, and
   periodically breezy north to east winds through the weekend and
   into next week

 - Slight chance for light rain showers in Shasta County Sunday
   into next week

 - Potential shift toward active weather pattern mid to late next
   week

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Saturday:

Troughing continues ejecting eastward early this morning with a
period of northwesterly flow and rising heights aloft building in
through the end of the week. This will result in a few periods of
breezier north to east winds across the area alongside drier
weather and warming temperatures. Strongest northerly winds
gusting 15-25 mph are currently favored along and west of
Interstate 5 today and Thursday afternoon. Locally breezy
northeasterly/downslope winds develop each overnight through mid
morning period in the mountains and foothills as well, especially
for the typical wind- prone locations and northeast/east to
southwest/west aligned drainages. For these areas, strongest winds
gusting 25-35 mph are expected late Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures will warm from near normal across the end of the
week to above normal into the weekend as a brief period of ridging
builds in. Resultant high temperatures into the 70s are
anticipated across the Valley/foothills and 60s throughout the
mountains.

Sunday-Next Week:

As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-southwest
flow aloft looks to build in Sunday into next week alongside
persistently high heights aloft. This will usher in a gradual
return toward light onshore flow, although high temperatures do
look to remain near to above normal into the early week ahead.
While available moisture early in the week will limit overall
precipitation potential, any ejecting shortwaves will introduce at
least light shower chances for portions of Shasta County to begin
the week.

Ensemble guidance still generally indicates potential for a shift
toward an active weather pattern, including chances for heavy
rain and heavy mountain snow, around the mid to late next week
period. A high degree of uncertainty still accompanies the
forecast relative to this potential shift though. The anticipated
southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska
toward the California coast remains the largest piece of
uncertainty at this time. Persistent ridging and high heights
aloft across much of interior California have so far staved off
this robust system. Given the deep fetch of available moisture
offshore and general ensemble trends for the aforementioned trough
to break through and dig southward by mid next week, the WPC 8-14
day outlook (Nov. 10-16) continues to highlight a slight to
moderate risk for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow. Be sure to
stay up to date with the latest forecast information and check
back for updates as we get closer.

&&

.AVIATION...

Areas of MVFR/IFR in BR/FG are expected throughout the Valley and
into the lower foothills through 18z today, clearing to VFR
conditions after. Best potential for BR/FG is anticipated along
and south of the Interstate 80 corridor. Breezy north winds 8-12
kts are expected to continue at TAF sites through 00z Thursday
before trending less than 12 kts. As winds weaken after 00z
Thursday, another period of MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG will be
possible throughout the Valley into Thursday morning as well.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$