Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
427
FXUS66 KSTO 152044
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
144 PM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Critical fire weather conditions likely tonight through Monday
night across the Sacramento Valley due to gusty northerly winds
and low relative humidity. Below average temperatures and dry
conditions continue over the next several days before we see a
return to warmer than normal temperatures late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect from 11 PM tonight - 8 PM  Monday
across the majority of the Sacramento Valley due to low daytime
relative humidity, gusty northerly winds, and poor overnight
recoveries.
- Northerly winds continue early next week maintaining some locally
elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday.
-Normal or near normal temperatures continue through most of the
week, with a gradual warming trend late week into the weekend, and
widespread Moderate HeatRisk expected on Friday.

Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Tuesday)...
Patchy high clouds cover much of the northern Sacramento Valley
this afternoon on GOES West Satellite imagery, though much of the
rest of the sky over interior NorCal remains clear. Tonight sees
the start of critical fire weather conditions in much of the
Sacramento Valley and nearby terrain, and subsequently a Red Flag
Warning goes into effect for areas below 2000 ft. Highest risk is
expected to occur along the western edge of the northern and
central portions of the Sacramento Valley, with wind gusts
reaching up to 25 to 35 mph and daytime humidities in the low
teens. Overnight recoveries will also be poor, with humidities
expected to only reach the 30s to mid 40s. These conditions will
last into Monday evening; it is imperative to practice fire safety
during this time!

Temperatures will be near to slightly below seasonable through
Monday, with highs in the Valley reaching the mid to high 80s, and
higher elevations seeing temperatures around the 60s and 70s.
Tuesday sees more normal temperatures with highs in the low 90s in
the Valley, and 80s and 70s in the foothills and mountains
respectively. Otherwise, relatively calm weather returns Tuesday
and into mid-week.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
As we move further into the week, upper level ridging causes the
warming trend to continue on Wednesday and into next weekend, with
the likely return of triple digits by Friday or Saturday.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected Friday and Saturday as
well, along with areas of Major HeatRisk in the central Sacramento
Valley and nearby foothills on Saturday. Probabilities of
reaching at least 100 degrees are 50- 80% throughout the Valley on
Friday, and 60 to 85% on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface wind
mainly at or below 12 kts until around 07z Sunday in the northern
Sacramento Valley, when northerly gusts up to 25 kts possible.
Also, in vicinity of the Delta westerly/southwesterly surface
winds could get up to 20 kts overnight. Stronger and gustier winds
expected Sunday and Monday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM PDT Monday for
Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern
Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes
portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra
Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the
Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-
Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-
Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far
Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.

&&

$$