829
FXUS66 KSTO 261824
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1124 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Elevated fire weather conditions today and Monday in the Burney
   Basin due to low relative humidity and breezy southwesterly
   wnds. Winds slightly weaker Monday, but low humidity values
   continue.

 - Increasing heat across interior northern California later this week,
   with Moderate HeatRisk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Seasonable high temperatures continue across interior NorCal, with
mostly clear skies dominating the area. Synoptic pattern aloft
shows ridging to our southeast and weak offshore troughing in the
PacNW. Pattern has helped temperatures remain seasonable and dry
for the area. Pattern will remain relatively unchanged the next
few days, with slight retrograding of the ridge and troughing
lifting/breaking down to our northwest. These slight pattern
changes however will allow for increases of afternoon high
temperatures, especially Wednesday and Thursday as triple-digit
heat will return to the area. Warmest temperatures will be in the
northern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley, where
onshore flow will be less prominent. Moderate HeatRisk will return
to those aforementioned areas on Wednesday and Thursday. Later
down the week, ensembles suggest high pressure further
retrograding to be near the Four Corner`s region by
Friday/Saturday. NBM suggests as ridge builds in, high
temperatures will begin to rise to slightly above-normal by Friday
and continuing into Sunday. Right now, if that pattern were to
develop it doesn`t appear to be a major heat event, but high
temperatures could range from around 5-10 degrees above seasonal
norms. Mostly widespread Moderate HeatRisk would accompany the
warmer temperatures, but we will continue to monitor the
progression and development of the upper level pattern to see if
any heat related products would be necessary later this week.

For today and Monday, elevated fire weather conditions will
continue in the Burney Basin and portions of the NE foothills.
While wind speeds will be slightly lower compared to Friday and
Saturday of last week, low daytime humidity values in the low to
mid teens are still expected. Easier fire starts will be the
primary concerns in those regions. Prolonged dry conditions and
potential above normal heat later this week will also need to be
monitored for at least elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout interior
Northern California over the next 24 hours. Winds generally below
12 kt, but can`t rule out some gusts in the mountains as well as
near the Delta after 22Z to around 20 kt.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$