977
FXUS66 KSTO 251926
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1226 PM PDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dry with seasonable high temperatures through the week, with a
    cool down by the weekend.

  - Elevated Fire Weather conditions in portions of the Valley and
    Foothills on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mid level clouds are moving through portions of the Sacramento
Valley this afternoon. Cloud coverage has decreased over the last
few hours allowing for sunshine to filter in the through the area.
Temperatures are starting to reach the upper 80s in the northern
Sacramento Valley with low to mid 80s elsewhere. Overall synoptic
pattern remains relatively unchanged compared to yesterday; with
high pressure in the south and off shore troughing in the PacNW.
Ensembles reveal slight changes in the upper level pattern through
Thursday, which will allow temperatures to remain seasonable and
keep dry conditions in the forecast. The continued dry pattern
with daytime humidity values in the the teens to low 20s across
portions of the Valley and NE Foothills and Burney Basin will
allow for elevated fire weather conditions to develop tomorrow and
Thursday.

By Friday, offshore troughing is forecast to begin moving inland,
which will allow for cooling high temperatures and enhanced
onshore flow. High temperatures will begin a gradual cooldown,
allowing for mostly Minor HeatRisk to remain in the forecast this
weekend and into next week. The slight pattern change will also
allow a moisture plume to move through portions of the Sierra,
mainly south of HWY50 on Friday embedded within a shortwave of
energy. Recent NBM runs have slightly decreased overall confidence
in any thunderstorms developing in the higher elevations west of
the Sierra Crest on Friday; however some deterministic soundings
show enough instability and moisture for us to keep an eye on how
the pattern evolves the next few days. Cooler temperatures will
continue to prevail as we move into next week as ensembles suggest
offshore troughing will remain the driving synoptic feature.
Periodic breezy onshore winds will also remain in the forecast as
we move into the weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal TAF sites next 24
hours. Period of locally breezy southerly winds up to 25 kts in
the northern Sacramento Valley from 21Z today thru 04Z Wednesday.
Elsewhere, surface wind gusts generally below 12 kts. Mountain
TAF sites with west-southwest wind gusts 25 to 30 kts through 03Z
Wednesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$