973
FXUS66 KSTO 011959
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1259 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dry and warm weather prevails through early next week
  - Active weather returns mid next week with showers, gusty
    southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, mountain snow showers
    and slightly cooler temperatures. Low confidence on amounts.

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Dry and warm weather continue across interior NorCal this
afternoon. Light, diurnal and terrain driven winds expected to
continue as well.

Sunday - Monday...Dry and warm weather continues to prevail over
the weekend and into early next week. Light winds are generally
expected. Patchy fog Sunday morning mainly in the northern San
Joaquin Valley, with visibilities down to around 1 mile in some
places. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s to around
80 across the Valley, foothills and mountains of interior NorCal.

Tuesday - Friday...Ensemble guidance continues to indicate a
pattern change for the middle of next week. There is still some
uncertainty with the exact amounts and timing due to variability
in the storm track. Forecast trends are beginning to settle on
where the highest precipitation totals/impacts will be. A somewhat
faster arrival time with showers arriving in the northern
Sacramento Valley Monday night is appearing more likely, with most
of the rain shower activity remaining north of I-80 Tuesday. The
bulk of the rain arrives on Wednesday with widespread rain across
the region. As preciously mentioned, models are beginning to hone
in on Shasta County, the Northeast Foothills, the Sierra and
southern Cascades, and the Coastal Range receiving the highest
rain amounts. Snow levels generally above 7500 feet with this
system, so the bulk of snowfall will be at Lassen NF and the peaks
of the Sierra and southern Cascades. Minor impacts of wet/slick
roads in the mountains Wednesday night as snow levels briefly fall
to 7000 feet. We will likely begin messaging our forecast rain
totals, wind gusts, and any snow totals tomorrow afternoon, when
confidence should be higher, but a beneficial rain for NorCal
appears the most likely scenario at this time. Other impacts
include gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, slightly
cooler temperatures, and mountain snow showers. Always remember to
check your local weather forecast at weather.gov for updates!

.AVIATION...

General VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal the next 24
hours. Some areas of BR are expected early Sunday, resulting
periods of in MVFR conditions in the central/southern Sacramento
Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley from 11z through 17z, with
isolated patches of FG possible into the northern San Joaquin
Valley. Light, variable surface winds less than 12 knots.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$