103
FXUS66 KSTO 291831
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1131 AM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Seasonable to below normal temperatures persist through next
    week.

  - Elevated Fire Weather conditions Monday afternoon and early
    evening in the northern Sac Valley, northeastern foothills,
    and Burney Basin due to low humidity and breezy winds.

  - There remains high uncertainty in exact details, but
    unsettled weather and precipitation chances look to return by
    late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

This Weekend Through Early Next Week...

Drier weather can be observed today on GOES West satellite
imagery, with primarily clear skies and only a hint of yesterday`s
moisture plume in the small trails of clouds forming off of the
Sierra crest. While these clouds show the remnants of subtropical
moisture in the area, thunderstorm probabilities for this
afternoon and evening are more or less non-existant now. Next best
chances for thunderstorms currently sits around 10% on Tuesday
afternoon and evening in the western half of Shasta county, though
overall confidence is quite low. Otherwise, dry weather through
the first half of next week with seasonable to cooler than normal
highs across interior NorCal. Monday does see some elevated fire
weather conditions in the northern Sac Valley, northeastern
foothills, and Burney Basin due to low humidity and breezy winds
as well.

Late Next Week...

While the NBM continues to show potential for showers and
unsettled weather starting late next week, ensemble members still
display vastly different solutions. Timing and amounts of precip
in particular will depend on how the various troughs and areas of
low pressure continue to develop and progress through the west
coast. The current NBM forecast has patchy showers over the course
of several days, with light accumulations around HWY 50 northward by
the weekend. At the very least, cooler than normal weather can be
expected to continue. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates!

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions prevail over the next 24 hours across interior
NorCal with surface winds generally below 12 kts for TAF sites.
Breezy to gusty southwest winds are expected through 06z Sunday
over the Sierra, gusting up to 25 to 30 kts. Gusts up to 20 to 25
kts in the Delta are possible through 06Z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$