Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
984 FXUS66 KSTO 152028 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 128 PM PDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues this week. Near normal high temperatures expected through early this week with periods on breezy onshore flow. Warming trend by Tuesday, followed by areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley and foothills on Wednesday. Cooling trend expected late next week with stronger onshore flow Thursday- Friday. Potential for gusty northerly winds and elevated fire weather conditions next weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Today-Monday: -Seasonable temperatures are expected through early this week. -Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 90F: --Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 50-90% --Delta, S. Sac Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 35-70% -Onshore flow expected to persist with periods of breezy winds, mainly in the afternoons and evenings and strongest across the Delta and vicinity. Breezy westerlies over the Sierra. -Low humidity may bring a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions across western portions of the northern San Joaquin Valley Monday afternoon. * Tuesday-Wednesday: - Above normal temperatures with areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley and foothills by Wednesday as ridging develops. Potential for triple digit heat in the northern Sacramento Valley (40-80% probability); mid to upper 90s in other Valley locations. -Probability of Valley High Temperatures > 95F: --Northern/Central Sacramento Valley: 50-90% Tue, 70-100% Wed, 35-65% Thu --Delta, S. Sacramento Valley, N. San Joaquin Valley: 10-20% Tue & Thu, 50-85% Wed -Warming and drying trend by mid-week may bring a brief period of elevated fire weather conditions, mainly across the northern Sacramento Valley. *Thursday-Next Weekend: -Gradual cooling trend expected with stronger onshore flow Thursday-Friday. Strongest winds expected through the Delta and over the Sierra. -Brief period of elevated fire weather conditions possible across the northern Sacramento Valley late this week due a combination of low humidity and locally breezy winds. -Gusty northerly winds develop next weekend. Probability of wind gusts > 30 mph: 50-85% Saturday across the Sacramento Valley and Delta. -The combination of gusty northerly winds and lowering humidity could bring elevated fire weather conditions next weekend. .Changes from previous forecast... -Northerly winds have been trending stronger for next weekend with the potential for elevated fire weather conditions. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will continue at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally below 12 kts, except in the vicinity of the Delta area, where there will be sustained winds around 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts throughout the next 24 hours. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$