106
FNUS76 KSTO 031620
FWSSTO

Spot Forecast for P-1...USDA-FS CA-ENF
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
920 AM PDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 PDT on September 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny conditions with some light cloud coverage at the P-1 wildfire
this morning. Hell Hole RAWS showing easterly winds this morning, gusting
to around 15 mph. Winds are expected to calm slightly as we move through
the late morning and into the afternoon. Another push of moisture is expected
to move through NorCal later today and bring a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms
along the Sierra Crest. Current high resolution models shows less widespread
coverage of storms compared to yesterday and keeps most activity north of the
P-1 wildfire. No accumulating rainfall is expected; however if any storm
develops brief heavy rainfall and gusty erratic outflow winds will be the
primary concerns. Similar setup on Thursday, with a 5-10% chance of an
afternoon/evening thunderstorm expected, with better coverage north of
the P-1 site.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. Slight chance (10-20%) of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon. Better chances further north
of the wildfire location. Areas of smoke,
reducing visibility in vicinity of fire
location.
Max temperature.....78-82.
Min humidity........32-36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds around 10 mph, becoming west up to 5 mph late in
                    the afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near any thunderstorms late in the afternoon, with
outflow winds being the main concern.
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest
                    5 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...17 percent.

TIME (PDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR
Chc of thdr (%).0      10     10     20     10
Temp............68     74     77     78     75
RH..............49     38     32     35     39
20 ft wind......E 10   SW 2   SW 2   W 3    W 3
20 ft wind gust.8      8      9      12     10
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   8200   8200   8100   4100
Transport wind..E 9    SE 8   SE 8   SW 5   W 7

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....60-64.
Max humidity........50-54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming east up to 6 mph in the
                    late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 7 mph shifting to the east 7 to
                    8 mph late in the evening.
Chance of thunder...7 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Chc of thdr (%).10     0      0      0      0      0
Temp............73     64     64     65     65     65
RH..............43     61     57     56     53     53
20 ft wind......W 3    SW 2   NE 5   E 6    E 6    E 5
20 ft wind gust.8      5      7      8      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4100   1000   1000   1000   1000   1000
Transport wind..W 7    NW 5   NW 5   E 7    E 8    E 8

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Around a 5-10% chance of an afternoon/evening
shower or thunderstorm, better chances will be further
north and south of the wildfire location.
Max temperature.....77-81.
Min humidity........33-37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......East winds up to 5 mph in the morning becoming
                    light, then becoming west 5 to 9 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southwest
                    6 to 8 mph late in the morning.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Chc of thdr (%).0         0         10        10
Temp............64        69        76        78
RH..............54        47        37        33
20 FT wind......E 5G7     E 5G7     SW 3G8    W 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....1000      2100      7200      7900
Transport wind..E 7       SE 5      SW 6      SW 7

$$
Forecaster...JW
Requested by...Anthony Sigona
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521245.0/STO
.DELDT 09/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david.pereira@usda.gov,anthony.sigona@usda.gov