198
FNUS76 KSTO 121929
FWSSTO

Spot Forecast for New Hogan Fall VMP...CalFire
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1229 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 PDT on October 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
A weather system is forecast to move through the area Monday and
Tuesday, bringing widespread precipitation, breezy southerly
winds, and isolated thunderstorms. Current forecast rain totals
are around 1.25 to 1.75" inches Monday through Tuesday. Heaviest
rain is expected Monday into early Tuesday morning. Gusty
southerly winds are expected on Monday, with gusts up to 20-25
mph. Isolated thunderstorms (10-15% chance) are possible Monday
and Tuesday.

.COLUMBUS DAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early in the
                    morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....60-64.
Min humidity........72-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts 15 to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 15 to 22 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................11 percent increasing to 94 percent.
Chance of thunder...12 percent.

TIME (PDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............10  10  10  80  80  80  80  80  80  90
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............53  54  56  57  58  59  59  60  57  56
RH..............80  79  74  73  74  73  74  80  87  99
SL/VL wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
SL/VL wind spd..6   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
SL/VL wind gust.12  14  16  18  20  22  23  23  22  22
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..8   8   8   17  17  17  22  22  22  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.5 1.5 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.6
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   17  17  17  22  22  22  15

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers through the night. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms late in the evening.
Min temperature.....48-52.
Max humidity........95-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 15-20 mph decreasing to 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the evening.
 Ridgetop...........South 15 to 22 mph shifting to the southeast 12
                    to 15 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 22 mph shifting to the southeast 12
                    to 15 mph overnight.
CWR.................94 percent decreasing to 45 percent late in the
                    evening, then increasing to 74 percent early in
                    the morning.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
CWR.............90  90  90  90  90  50  50  50  50  50  50  70
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  10  10  10  10
Temp............56  56  56  55  55  55  55  54  53  52  51  51
RH..............96  93  89  91  90  87  87  89  90  90  89  90
SL/VL wind dir..S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
SL/VL wind spd..10  10  9   9   9   10  10  10  7   7   7   7
SL/VL wind gust.22  22  20  20  20  20  20  20  13  13  13  13
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Ridge wind spd..15  15  18  18  18  22  22  22  12  12  12  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  18  18  18  22  22  22  12  12  12  15

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Rain showers, then chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....54-58.
Min humidity........84-88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South to southeast winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts
                    around 15 mph.
 Ridgetop...........South to southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South to southeast 10 to 15 mph.
CWR.................77 percent decreasing to 4 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...9 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC
CWR.............70  70  70  70  70  80  80  80  80  80  80  0
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0
Temp............50  50  50  51  52  53  54  54  54  55  55  55
RH..............93  97  99  97  94  92  94  96  98  97  96  94
SL/VL wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SE
SL/VL wind spd..7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   6
SL/VL wind gust.13  13  15  15  15  17  17  17  17  17  17  13
Ridge wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Ridge wind spd..15  15  10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.7
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.15  15  10  10  10  12  12  12  10  10  10  10

$$
Forecaster...IDS
Requested by...Kenneth Pease
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523213.0/STO
.DELDT 10/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kenny.pease@fire.ca.gov