075
FNUS76 KSTO 301905
FWSSTO

Spot Forecast for Madrone Springs Underburn...USFS
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1205 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 PDT on October 31.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Cool temperatures and cloudy skies with light to moderate rainfall
expected near the burn site this Saturday, with conditions drying on
Sunday. Heaviest rainfall expected Saturday morning into the early
afternoon, with 24 hour totals around 0.25 to 0.5 inches. 20 to 35%
chance of totals exceeding 0.5 inches. There is a 10-15% chance for
isolated thunderstorms within 15 miles of the site as well; any storms
that occur will bring brief but heavy rain, small hail, lightning, and
erratic and gusty winds. Best chances for thunderstorm development
between 10am and 5pm. Winds generally light and southerly on Saturday,
becoming more variable on Sunday. Brief drying trend early in the week
with more northerly to easterly winds, before an eventual return to
unsettled weather.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain through the day. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the day.
Max temperature.....48-54.
Min humidity........92-99 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds up to 5 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms.
 Ridgetop...........South 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 12 mph.
CWR.................34 percent increasing to 45 percent late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 35 percent late in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
CWR.............30     30     30     50     50     50
Chc of thdr (%).10     20     20     20     20     20
Temp............47     47     48     48     49     48
RH..............89     93     100    99     97     97
SL/VL wind......SE 1   S 2    S 1    S 2    S 2    S 1
SL/VL wind gust.3      5      6      9      10     9
Ridgetop wind...S 7    S 10   S 10   S 12   S 12   S 12
Mix hgt (ft)....600    1300   1300   1900   1700   1700
Transport wind..S 7    S 10   S 10   S 12   S 12   S 12

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain.
Min temperature.....39-43.
Max humidity........98-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southeast winds less than 5 mph.
 Ridgetop...........South 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 9 mph.
CWR.................35 percent decreasing to 5 percent.
Chance of thunder...6 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
CWR.............40     40     40     30     30     30
Chc of thdr (%).10     0      0      0      0      10
Temp............47     44     44     44     44     43
RH..............100    100    100    97     96     94
SL/VL wind......SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 0   SE 0   SE 0
SL/VL wind gust.10     9      9      2      2      2
Ridgetop wind...S 8    SE 7   SE 7   S 6    SE 6   SE 6
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   500    500    400    500    500
Transport wind..S 8    SE 7   SE 7   S 6    SE 6   SE 6

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny then becoming sunny. Slight chance
of rain in the morning.
Max temperature.....52-58.
Min humidity........59-66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light and variable winds.
 Ridgetop...........East around 7 mph shifting to the north late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 7 mph shifting to the north late in
the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR
CWR.............10        10        0         0
Chc of thdr (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............42        43        50        53
RH..............97        96        73        60
SL/VL wind......N 0G2     E 1G5     N 0G3     W 2G7
Ridgetop wind...E 7       E 7       E 3       N 5
Mix hgt (ft)....900       600       3200      4900
Transport wind..E 7       E 7       E 3       N 5

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 60. East winds up
to 5 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. East
winds up to 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs
in the lower 60s. East winds up to 5 mph.

$$
Forecaster...SP
Requested by...Kenny Remmert
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2624669.3/STO
.DELDT 10/30/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kenneth.remmert@usda.gov