106
FNUS76 KSTO 221422
FWSSTO

Spot Forecast for CHUTE Incident...CAL FIRE NEU
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
722 AM PDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1107 PDT on July 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies with cooler high temperatures today at the Chute Incident.
Daytime humidity values will be in the low to mid 40s today, with high
overnight recoveries in the low 90s expected as onshore flow strengthens.
Drying conditions will return tomorrow, as high pressure will continue
to build across the region. Temperatures will warm, but not expecting
triple-digit heat through the rest of the week.

Winds continue to be mainly terrain driven, with strongest gusts expected
in the afternoons and evening. Gusts today will be the strongest later today
with south wind gusts up to 25 mph, potentially stronger in down-canyon
areas. By tomorrow, winds will return to their typical diurnal/terrain
driven speeds, with gusts of 15-20 mph in the afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorm chances have dropped to less than 1% today, however the
risk of storms at higher elevations along the Sierra crest remains around
15-20%, posing the risk of gusty outflow winds reaching the incident.
Tomorrow,  thunderstorm chances will move even further east, reducing
the gusty outflow risk to near zero.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....86-90.
Min humidity........41-45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds up to 6 mph.
 Ridgetop...........South 25 to 29 mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 10 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............79  81  84  85  86  87  86
RH..............59  57  53  50  46  44  44
SL/VL wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
SL/VL wind spd..5   5   6   6   6   6   5
SL/VL wind gust.9   12  13  13  14  14  13
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..25  26  28  28  29  29  29
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.8
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   10  10  10  9

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....56-60.
Max humidity........88-92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Southwest winds up to 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
 Ridgetop...........South 21 to 29 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph shifting to the east around 5
                    mph late in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............86  84  79  75  71  69  67  65  64  62  61  60
RH..............44  46  50  60  68  73  80  85  89  90  90  90
SL/VL wind dir..SW  SW  SW  S   S   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
SL/VL wind spd..5   3   3   2   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   1
SL/VL wind gust.12  12  9   7   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..29  28  26  26  26  25  24  22  21  21  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 3.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   9   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....88-92.
Min humidity........24-28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southwest up to 5 mph late
                    in the afternoon, then becoming light late in
                    the afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........South 18 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 5 mph shifting to the southwest 3
                    to 8 mph early in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............59  61  65  69  77  79  82  85  87  88  89  90
RH..............89  86  74  66  59  53  47  41  35  30  28  26
SL/VL wind dir..NE  NE  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
SL/VL wind spd..1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   5   5   5   3
SL/VL wind gust.3   3   6   6   6   10  10  10  12  12  12  9
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..22  21  21  21  20  20  20  18  18  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 3.9
Transp wind dir.E   E   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.5   5   3   3   3   6   6   6   8   8   8   7

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 90s. Light
winds.
.SATURDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 90s. Light
winds.
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 90s. Light winds.
.MONDAY...
Clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the lower 90s.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 90.

$$
Forecaster...JW
Requested by...Rodney Hart
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2617882.1/STO
.DELDT 07/22/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL rodney.hart@fire.ca.gov