030
FNUS76 KSTO 120248
FWSSTO

Spot Forecast for Tobacco Gulch RX...USFS
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
648 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 PST on November 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
South winds increase as we move through the day, in response to an
approaching Atmospheric River. Widespread rain, gusty winds, thunderstorm
chances (mainly on Thursday), and cooler high temperatures. Rain chances
increase Wednesday night into Thursday where the best chances for
thunderstorms exists and heaviest rain. Gusty south winds of 30-40 mph
are also possible on Thursday. Precipitation continues into Friday,
although not as widespread and light by the afternoon. Current
rain total forecast from Wednesday PM through Friday at the burn site
is 2.75 to 3.00" inches, with higher amounts in any thunderstorm that
may develop over the area. A brief break in precipitation is forecast
for Saturday and Sunday, then another wave of moisture is forecast to
move into the area by Monday.
.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....64-68.
Min humidity........61-65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming south up to 6 mph late in
                    the morning.
 Ridgetop...........South 6 to 15 mph increasing to 8 to 17 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph.
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.

TIME (PST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0      0
Temp............58     62     64     65     62
RH..............68     65     63     63     69
SL/VL wind......S 2    S 5    S 6    S 5    S 6
SL/VL wind gust.8      14     16     15     16
Ridgetop wind...S 6    S 15   S 17   S 17   S 8
Mix hgt (ft)....900    2600   3300   3300   1100
Transport wind..S 6    S 15   S 17   S 17   S 8

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Rain
                    showers likely in the late evening and
                    overnight. Rain showers after 3 am.
Min temperature.....51-55.
Max humidity........98-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
 Ridgetop...........South 8 to 12 mph increasing to 17 to 23 mph in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 23 mph.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 94 percent.
Chance of thunder...9 percent.

TIME (PST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  CLOUDY
CWR.............0      0      30     30     30     90
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      10     10     10     10
Temp............60     59     60     59     59     58
RH..............70     67     63     66     80     99
SL/VL wind......S 6    SE 7   S 7    S 7    S 10   S 13
SL/VL wind gust.16     15     22     22     23     28
Ridgetop wind...S 8    S 12   S 18   S 18   S 17   S 23
Mix hgt (ft)....1100   600    800    800    1300   800
Transport wind..S 8    S 12   S 18   S 18   S 17   S 23

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers.
Max temperature.....55-59.
Min humidity........97-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph in
                    the morning and early afternoon.
 Ridgetop...........South 23 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 35 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to around 15 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 26 mph increasing to 26 to 35 mph
                    in the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    decreasing to around 15 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................98 percent decreasing to 82 percent late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.

TIME (PST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY
CWR.............90        90        100       100
Chc of thdr (%).10        10        10        10
Temp............56        54        53        53
RH..............100       100       100       99
SL/VL wind......S 13G28   S 12G29   S 10G28   S 8G22
Ridgetop wind...S 23      S 26      S 35      S 26
Mix hgt (ft)....800       2000      2700      1600
Transport wind..S 23      S 26      S 35      S 26

.OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 19 THROUGH TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25...
The Climate Prediction Center has our area in a 50/50 chance for
near normal temperatures, and normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation would mean the more wet pattern for this time of
year is favored.

$$
Forecaster...JW
Requested by...Ben Strahan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2525625.0/STO
.DELDT 11/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL anthony.sigona@usda.gov,Benjamin.strahan@usda.gov