090
FXUS62 KTAE 132326
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
726 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Overall, not a whole lot of change to the forecast was made for
the update. Showers and storms are ongoing this evening, but are
expected to wane as the evening progresses. Isolated to scattered
showers and storms are expected to continue across the Gulf waters
tonight with a few of those nearing shore by early Saturday
morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

The air mass is in the process of moistening. Satellite PW imagery
shows a slug of 2-2.2 inch values spreading northward up the
Nature Coast and into the Eastern FL Big Bend. This will continue
northward this evening into the I-75 corridor of south Georgia,
and then expand west across the region later tonight and Saturday.

With such a moist air mass, it will not take much lift to squeeze
out convection. Of course, we will have the usual diurnal trends
of late night and morning convection near the coast, then PM
convection inland. However, a little lift from the shortwave
spinning across the Mid-South will keep isolated showers and
thunderstorms going all the way through the night over inland
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Southerly flow from the Gulf is allowing for high PWATS to move in
over the forecast region on Saturday into Saturday night. Troughing
from an upper level low out west can bring enough lift to allow for
afternoon thunderstorms to continue into the night on Saturday.
Sunday, PWATs begin to gradually decline as dry air currently over
the eastern Caribbean follows the clockwise flow of the Bermuda high
and makes its way to the forecast region.

Moving into next week, rain chances continue to decline as the drier
airmass moves in overhead. A 500 mb high off the Atlantic will begin
to extend out farther west allowing for ridging to set up over the
district. Expect partly cloudy skies and increased maximum temps in
the early to middle part of the week. Afternoon convection is
possible but coverage may be less widespread as seen in the past few
days.

The forecast district will begin to become sandwiched in between the
Bermuda high and a strong heatwave high over the the Great Plains.
This setup can bring some instability to the region allowing for an
increased chance for widespread rain and convection to develop in
the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Showers and storms are ongoing, especially near KABY and KDHN, so
included TSRA for those TAF sites for an hour or so into the TAF
package with a few vicinity thunderstorms near KTLH this evening
and vicinity showers near KVLD. Most TAF sites are expected to
remain dry tonight once these showers/storms dissipate. However,
another round of late-morning/afternoon showers and storms are
expected across the region Saturday. Attempted to time out some of
the better opportunities for those storms with PROB30 groups with
this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Gentle southerly breezes will prevail through next Wednesday, as
the strong subtropical high remains anchored south of Bermuda. So
showers and thunderstorms will be the main threats to mariners,
including strong wind gusts, lightning, waterspouts, and locally
reduced visibility.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A seasonably hot, moist and unstable air mass will be in place
through the this weekend and next week, with daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms. The main difference is that Wednesday through
next Friday will feature less coverage of thunderstorms and
temperatures rising a few degrees above normal. For now, the main
fire weather concerns through early next week will be
thundertorm-related, specifically lightning along with erratic
and gusty winds near storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Hydrology concerns over the next 7 days will consist of localized
nuisance runoff issues and isolated flash flooding.

A typical pattern of summer thunderstorms will persist for the next
week. Beneath the core of stronger thunderstorms, intense rainfall
rates have potential for localized runoff issues, especially in
urban and poor drainage areas. With torrential rain rates, storms
that linger over the same area for too long would bring isolated
flash flooding. This would be especially true if any north-south
lines can develop parallel to the steering flow. Lastly, the air
mass will be moistest through Saturday, so that will further
enhance rain rates beneath stronger storms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  87  73  90 /  30  80  20  70
Panama City   77  88  77  89 /  40  80  40  60
Dothan        73  88  72  90 /  40  80  30  70
Albany        73  88  72  90 /  40  90  20  60
Valdosta      73  88  73  92 /  30  70  20  60
Cross City    72  90  72  91 /  30  60  20  60
Apalachicola  77  86  77  86 /  40  80  40  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner