448
FXUS62 KTAE 171810
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
210 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Rain chances have increased for Sunday to 40-70% ahead of a
   cold front. An isolated strong storm is possible, but chances
   for severe weather remain very low (less than 5%).

 - Drought continues to worsen across the area with little
   beneficial rain on the horizon. The dry conditions and
   decreasing humidity next week will result in elevated fire
   concerns continuing. Exercise caution if dealing with flames.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

A weak backdoor cold front is moving through the area this
afternoon with some drier air filtering in from the northeast.
Ultimately, this has little impact on our weather as we will
continue with another cool night tonight and another warm day
Saturday. Lows will range from the mid-50s near the I-75 corridor
and Suwannee Valley to the low 60s over the Central Time Zone
counties. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to mid
80s, maybe a few upper 80s Saturday.

Our next cold front comes into view late Saturday night into
Sunday. Models have trended toward a slightly stronger and
slightly farther south trough over the last 24 hours. This will
help pull in a little more moisture, resulting in higher rain
chances than previously forecast. A band of showers and a few
embedded storms will move into our area early Sunday morning.
There appears to be modest instability with about 30-40 kt of deep
layer shear ahead of this line. This could result in a couple
stronger wind gusts if the storms can maintain themselves, but the
chance for severe weather is very low (less than 5%). The line is
still poised to weaken as it moves through the area, and it`s
questionable how much integrity this band has by the time it makes
it into the eastern parts of our area. So rain chances range from
about 20-30% over the southeast Big Bend to 60-70% over our
Central Time Zone counties. There`s still somewhat large spread in
rainfall totals. The most likely rain amounts will be around 0.25
to 0.5 inch, but a few lucky spots may approach 1 inch, especially
in our far western areas. But, there is still a larger than
average bust potential on the low side, especially the farther
east one goes. More on this in the hydrology section.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The last of any remaining showers end Sunday evening in the
southeast Big Bend. A cooler, drier air mass overtakes the area
with lows in the low 50s over the Wiregrass and Flint Valley to
the low 60s in the southeast Big Bend. Highs only return to the
mid 70s to low 80s on Monday. High pressure moves over our area
Monday night, setting up what could be an ideal radiational
cooling event. Given the calm winds, clear skies, and dry air,
lows will fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s areawide.

Another cold front quietly sweeps through on Tuesday, reinforcing
this cool, dry pattern heading through the middle and latter part
of the week. In fact, Wednesday night appears to be the coolest
night of the season so far with widespread mid to upper 40s away
from the coast.

However, the bad news with all this is the very low humidity next
week will result in an increasing fire danger, especially if the
rain underperforms Sunday. If you`re doing any burning outside
such as campfires or bonfires, please exercise caution as fuels
are still rather dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Low-level easterly flow today will become southeasterly by Saturday
morning, and there will only be enough moisture to support fair
weather cumulus during daytime hours. Based on persistence from
recent mornings, have included near-sunrise BR only at VLD on
Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes continue through
Saturday with high pressure to our north. A surge of near-
cautionary levels winds occurs tonight into Saturday morning, but
falls just short of exercise caution levels. Winds turn more
southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching
cold front. A band of weakening showers and storms will move
through the marine area from west to east along and ahead of the
front. Winds turn northerly to northeasterly Sunday night through
Tuesday, then become northwesterly again as another cold front
passes through on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue through Saturday with south to
southeast transport winds around 5-15 mph. Dispersions will be
generally good, locally high in southeast Alabama where mixing
heights and transport winds will be highest. A cold front moves
through the area Sunday with a band of showers and a few storms.
Chances for wetting rain have increased to about 40-60% over the
Central Time Zone counties, but around 30% or less farther east.
Transport winds will become southwesterly around 10-20 mph ahead
of the front with good dispersions expected. Winds become
northerly to northeasterly Monday behind the front, but
dispersions will only be fair thanks to lower mixing heights and
lighter winds. Near critical RH levels are expected Monday with
min RH values in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Low humidity, even
critically low at times, will continue through much of next week.
Fire weather concerns remain elevated given the dry fuels without
much beneficial rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

The only chance for rain on the horizon is Sunday`s cold front.
Rain totals have increased due to models trending toward a
stronger and farther south solution. However, there`s still a fair
amount of uncertainty. For areas along and west of a Tallahassee-
Albany line, most likely totals are around a quarter to half an
inch. Farther east, about a tenth of an inch is most likely. If
the system overperforms, the reasonable high-end rainfall amounts
range from 1 to 1.25 inches over the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama and about 0.5 to 0.75 inches elsewhere. But,
there is a larger bust potential on the low end as mentioned in
the discussion above. The NBM`s probability of less than a tenth
of an inch is still around 20-40% over the Central Time Zone and
Flint River Valley and 50-70% elsewhere in the Big Bend and south
Georgia. Regardless, flooding is not a concern.

Unfortunately, this isn`t enough to break our drought. At best, it
may pause the worsening in areas that manage to get an inch of
rain. But for most, the low humidity and below-average rainfall
will only exacerbate drought concerns. For more information on
local drought impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  60  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   84  65  84  69 /   0   0   0  10
Dothan        84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0  20
Albany        82  58  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      82  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  56  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  66  79  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young