817
FXUS62 KTAE 020946
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
546 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Surface high pressure remains over the northeast US with ridging
down the Appalachians into the southeast US. Between this feature
and a surface low off the southeast Florida coast, northeast surface
flow will continue which will filter drier air southwestward from
the Carolinas. Any seabreeze activity in this regime will be
relegated to the southeast Big Bend where PWATs are progged around
1.6-1.7 inches while further north PWATs are 1.2-1.3 inches. Skies
will be partly to mostly sunny today with some high clouds passing
by. Despite the nearly unchanged low level pattern, highs will start
a gradual warming trend into the extended period. Readings today
will top out in the mid to upper 80s throughout the wiregrass and
Flint River valley to around 90 degrees near the coast. Lows tonight
will range through the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Broad upper-level troughing persists across the Eastern US with the
Tri-State area in between two frontal systems during the short-term
period. The first is a stagnant boundary draped from the Central
Gulf attendant to a non-tropical area of low pressure over the
Western Atlantic. Another front is expected to lift NE from the
Appalachians. This synoptic pattern fosters continued northeast low-
level flow, seasonably warm weather, and minimal PoPs. The latter is
capped at "chance", or about 25-40% along the Wiregrass (Wednesday)
and seabreeze convergence zone (Wednesday-Thursday). Overall,
convective coverage appears low with isolated thunder possible. High
temperatures are forecast to hover around 90 degrees while lows
range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Widespread heat indices peak
in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Troughing begins to lift north this weekend, which should pave the
way for subtropical ridging to slide in from the Western Atlantic.
This pattern shift yields a warming trend with high temperatures in
the low to mid 90s and peak heat approaching or exceeding 100
degrees. The hottest stretch of the long-term period is Friday-
Saturday-Sunday. Low temperatures in the low 70s will not provide
much nighttime/early morning relief.

Little to no rain is forecast outside of diurnal seabreeze
convection until early next week thanks to ridge-induced subsidence.
By Monday, an inverted trough approaches NE FL while a slug of
tropical moisture gets sling-shotted from the Desert SW to the Upper
MS/TN Valley. As such, chance to likely PoPs (25-60%) are in place
along the Interstate corridors - highest in the Eastern FL Big Bend
& South-Central GA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 542 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

VFR through the period. High clouds are set to increase this
morning with a disturbance upstream. The region is sandwiched
between high pressure to the north and an area of low pressure off
the east coast of Florida with northeast surface winds across the
aerodromes at 5-10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Overnight Observations:

PANAMA CITY TIDE STATION (8729108) - sustained ENE winds 4-5 kts.

PANAMA CITY BEACH TIDE STATION (8729210) - sustained ENE winds near
6 kts.

WEST TAMPA BUOY (42036) - sustained NE winds 17-18 kts, 3-4-ft seas,
and a dominant period of 5 seconds.

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the nearshore and
offshore zones until late tonight.

CWF Synopsis: Occasional instances of advisory level conditions
remain possible across the waters mainly via nocturnal easterly
surges through this evening. At a minimum, small craft should
exercise caution away from Saint Andrews Bay. By Wednesday, winds
and seas fall below headline criteria, but maintain an easterly
component outside of the nearshore afternoon seabreeze. A stationary
front south of the local waters maintains some cloudiness and
mention of daily showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Northeasterly surface winds will continue through Wednesday as high
pressure remains to our north but winds will switch to the south and
southwest later this week. Afternoon humidities will fall into the
40% range each day. Mixing heights around 5K feet this afternoon
will rise to near 6K feet Wednesday and Thursday. Transport winds
today will be northeasterly at 10-15 mph, slightly less Wednesday
then switching to southwesterly Thursday. This will lead to
favorable dispersions through late this work week. Any rain chances
will be confined mainly to south of I10 and southeast Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Tue Sep 2 2025

There are no hydrological concerns through this weekend. The next
best opportunity for appreciable rainfall is on Monday. All local
rivers are in good shape.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  68  89  70 /  10   0  20   0
Panama City   89  70  88  72 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        88  64  88  68 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        87  64  88  68 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      89  65  89  68 /  10   0  20   0
Cross City    91  69  90  70 /  20  10  20  10
Apalachicola  86  73  86  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning
     for GMZ730-751-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...IG3