398
FXUS62 KTAE 021317
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
917 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

No changes to the forecast this morning. Conditions have been
fairly active over our marine zones this morning and that should
continue for another few hours before much of the activity begins
to develop inland across our forecast area. Still looking at the
potential for a later start across our AL/GA counties this
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A weakening "cold" front is forecast to sag further south towards
the area today as a few very subtle shortwaves move across the
southeast CONUS. Deep layer moisture is expected to remain
overhead with forecast PWs in excess of 2 inches. Convergence
along this frontal boundary with southwest winds to the south and
northeast winds to the north will help keep this feature a focus
for shower and thunderstorm development later today and even into
the early overnight hours. More typical daytime seabreeze
convection is forecast to kick off across the Florida zones
earlier in the afternoon, with the northern round of convection
likely not getting underway until mid to late afternoon and
lasting into the evening or even early overnight. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms today.
Locally heavy rainfall may be more likely to cause some minor
flooding issues in urban areas and/or areas that received some
heavy rainfall yesterday.

The high temperature forecast may be a bit trickier than it
appears given the "cold" front placement and potentially different
initiation times of showers and storms across the southern vs
northern portions of the area. For now have most everyone in the
low to mid 90s, but could easily see the far northern areas a few
degrees cooler if convection kicks off earlier. Additionally,
while temperatures remain quite hot and humidity relatively high,
it appears that most of the area should stay just under heat
advisory criteria today. However, if convection ends up firing
later than forecast and/or coverage is less than expected, I
wouldn`t be surprised if a short-fused heat advisory is needed
later this morning or early afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

The upper level trough has come through with the cold front
stalled likely along the FL/AL/GA border. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the next several days with heavy
rainfall being the main concern, with PoPs ranging from 80 to 90
percent each afternoon. The WPC includes the majority of the
region in a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall
through at least Tuesday. Widespread rainfall and cloud cover will
keep temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the highs and
overnight lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Scattered showers and storms are expected across FL this morning
and early afternoon before transitioning to greater coverage of
convection over AL and GA later in the afternoon and lasting into
the evening or early overnight hours. Mostly VFR conditions are
expected today outside of showers and storms. Some low ceilings
will be possible late tonight across the northern sites as a weak
front sags into the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Daily showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the
weekend into next week. Winds (outside of storms) will be
southwesterly at around 10 kts becoming southerly by the start of
the work week with seas averaging 1-2 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Hot conditions begin to subside this weekend as rain chances
increase. The highest rain chances will be across our AL/GA
counties as a front moves south. With high chances for wetting
rains this weekend and potentially into early next week, fire
weather concerns will remain low to very low.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall covers our Alabama and
Georgia counties, and our Florida counties along I-10 today. WPC
Marginal Risks for Excessive Rainfall will continue into early
next week as the front remains stalled over the area providing
forcing for ascent in the existing moist unstable air mass. While
there will be potential for flash flooding, anticipated rainfall
totals should not result in sufficient rises on area rivers which
are running pretty low at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   94  75  90  74 /  70  60  90  60
Panama City   91  78  89  77 /  60  60  90  80
Dothan        93  73  87  72 /  90  70 100  60
Albany        93  73  87  71 /  90  70  90  70
Valdosta      95  73  90  72 /  80  70  90  60
Cross City    93  75  92  74 /  60  40  80  40
Apalachicola  90  79  89  79 /  60  60  90  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM....Montgomery
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Montgomery
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Montgomery