992
FXUS62 KTAE 010004
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
804 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New UPDATE, NEAR TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

The main focus of the update was to raise winds across the
northeast Gulf waters late this evening and overnight. Several
pieces of CAMS guidance point to 20-25 knot winds, and the 12z
NAM-based marine MOS guidance forecasts 10-meter winds of as much
as 26 knots at C Tower late this evening. Therefore, the Small
Craft Advisory was expanded to cover all marine zones except Saint
Andrews Bay. Here on a summer holiday weekend, inexperienced
mariners will want to stay in port until conditions start to
settle down some around midday on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Little change is expected through Monday. In the grand scheme of
our seasons around the tri-state region, fake fall is making a
house call. If you look at normal temperatures, they do not
typically even start the process of showing a sustained drop until
after September 15. So think of this as either fake fall, or a
reprieve from the summer weather that is still normal as we start
September.

A broad upper low centered over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region has
a fairly large cyclonic envelope, with a broad upper trough
extending down through the Carolinas and Georgia. Meanwhile at the
surface, a long fetch of NE wind is funnelling down the Carolina
and Georgia coastal plain and across our region, in the squeeze
between high pressure near Lake Ontario and low pressure between
NC and Bermuda. The NE flow will tap into the heart of a drier air
mass over eastern Virginia and reinforce our drier and not-so-hot
air mass on Monday. Shower chances on Monday will be confined to
the SE Big Bend region, where deeper moisture and PW values of 1.5
to 1.8 inches will hang on. In contrast, anywhere north of I-10
will have drier Precipitable Water (PW) values of 1 to 1.5 inches,
which is too dry to support deep, moist convection. With high
temperatures on Monday running 2-5 degrees below normal and a
moderate breeze all day long, it will feel uncommonly tolerable
for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Mid-level troughing is forecast to remain in place over the
eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week before gradually
beginning to lift northward. Generally dry offshore flow is
expected to continue for the most part this week, keeping the
forecast relatively warm and dry. A few showers and storms will be
possible each afternoon, but offshore flow should keep them
confined pretty close to the coast. A dry reinforcing front could
push through the area mid to late week, but not much meaningful
change is expected to be felt from it. Fairly seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s warming to the
low/mid 90s by mid to late week. Low temperatures similarly start
out in the mid 60s to near 70 before gently warming into the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Steady and sometimes gusty northeast breezes will persist. The
mid-level air mass will undergo a little more drying over the next
24 hours. So the main forecasting challenge will be occasional
bouts of SCT-BKN stratocumulus sliding southwest down the Carolina
coastal plain and into our region. Bases should generally be at
or well above 5,000 feet. There will be too much wind to support
fog on Monday morning, and a little more dry air advection should
even limit morning stratus. Bottom line, VFR conditions are
expected to persist through Monday, and NE winds will be gusty,
especially on Monday during the mid-late morning as dissipation of
the nighttime inversion allows winds aloft to mix down in gusts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A surge of strong northeast breezes will quickly develop near the
coast around sunset this evening, then spread offshore across the
northeast Gulf during the first few hours after dark. Seas will
build to 5 feet over the more distant waters. A Small Craft
Advisory is now in effect for all the open Gulf waters. Northeast
to east breezes will continue through Wednesday, as high pressure
passes by to the north and a stationary front meanders over the
Gulf generally extending west from Tampa Bay. Gradients will
weaken later Wednesday through Friday as that frontal boundary
exits off to the east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As we head into the start of the week, drier air moves in. However,
RH values are expected to remain well above critical with MinRH
around 40 to 50 percent. Northeast flow will prevail through the
week with speeds around 10-15 mph for the Transport winds on Monday,
then decreasing to 5-10 mph for the rest of the week. Dispersions
for Monday will be high for many districts in the FL Panhandle, Big
Bend, and AL Wiregrass regions. Fair to moderate afternoon
dispersions can be expected afterwards into midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 803 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Flooding is not expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  86  66  88 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   71  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Dothan        65  86  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        65  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      67  86  64  88 /  10  10   0  10
Cross City    71  88  69  90 /  30  30   0  30
Apalachicola  72  87  71  85 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for GMZ730-755-765-
     775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Haner