069
FXUS62 KTAE 271740
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
140 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A final shot of drier air will follow today`s frontal passage into
the area overnight, keeping dewpoints seasonably low overnight and
allowing temperatures to fall in to the mid to upper 60s across the
area (not too bad for late August). Moisture will gradually being to
rebound on Thursday with northwest flow aloft. Convective activity
will mostly be confined to the southeastern half of the forecast
area, where low-level moisture will recover faster. Even then, PoPs
will be below normal. As with the last several days, will continue
to undercut dewpoint guidance to better capture the afternoon mixing
being observed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Deeper moisture will move into the region for Friday as the next
piece of energy moves into the base of the broad eastern trough. The
associated surface trough combined with the deeper moisture should
yield higher PoPs across the area. The increased cloud cover and
precip will also serve to decrease afternoon max temperatures as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Wetter pattern will continue into the weekend as upper trough
remains in place and additional shortwaves move through the base. At
the surface, weak cyclogenesis is possible along the surface trough
along the Gulf Coast, which will help to enhance showers and
storms downstream. This will likely make for a wet weekend,
especially near and south of the surface trough. Locally heavy
rainfall could lead to some localized flooding issues, with a
marginal risk of excessive rainfall in place for Friday through
Sunday.

With time, there is disagreement with how much cyclogenesis occurs
along the boundary. A faster and stronger solution off the southeast
coast would likely drag in some drier air by early next week.
However, a slower and weaker solution would keep the boundary more
quasi-stationary across the region, with the wetter pattern
lingering a bit longer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A stationary front will lift back to the north over our waters
Friday into the weekend, with winds generally east to northeast
north of the front and west to southwest south of the front. Showers
and storms will be likely over the marine area Friday through the
holiday weekend. Seas will be around 2 to 3 feet this morning,
decreasing to 1 to 2 feet through the weekend. Offshore winds may
increase to near cautionary levels early next week as low pressure
develops off the Florida East Coast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

A dry airmass persists into Thursday with surface high pressure
ushering northerly winds. After bottoming out in the 30s and 40s
today, humidity values will rebounds each successive day into the
weekend. Good to fair dispersions are forecast on Thursday before
tanking on Friday afternoon as a weak cold front and cloudy
conditions move in. Rain chances increase Friday and into the
weekend. Widespread wetting rains are likely over the Labor Day
Weekend as a frontal boundary sags into the region. Despite the
drier conditions, fire weather concerns should remain fairly low
today and into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rain chances will gradually increase starting on Thursday across the
SE Big Bend. The only river in action stage is the Sopchoppy River,
which is expected to fall below action stage this evening. More
widespread rain returns Friday into the weekend, but rainfall totals
are most likely going to be in the 1-3 inch range across the area.
However, locally higher amounts of 2-4 inches would be possible. At
this point, while localized flooding is possible, it appears that
the threat of widespread flash flood and river flooding is low with
these forecast totals.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  69  90  71 /  10   0  20   0
Panama City   90  70  91  73 /  10   0  10  10
Dothan        87  64  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        88  67  89  70 /   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      90  70  90  70 /  10   0  20  10
Cross City    93  72  92  71 /  10  10  40  10
Apalachicola  87  72  88  75 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Camp
HYDROLOGY...Camp