799
FXUS62 KTAE 151837
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
237 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

 - A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

 - Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   bringing higher rainfall chances. Forecast rainfall is not
   likely to be enough to make a dent in ongoing drought
   conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

A ridge of high pressure is forecast to slide eastward from the
southern Plains over to the Gulf Coast states and eventually SE
CONUS over the next couple of days before flattening out as a
trough approaches. Surface high pressure well to the north of the
region will keep us in generally easterly to northeasterly flow
into Thursday night, before sliding east and inducing
southeasterly/onshore winds locally on Friday. The return of
onshore flow Friday into the weekend will help with moisture
return to the region ahead of the next frontal system expected
Sunday/Sunday night. Despite increasing moisture on Friday and
Saturday, the influence of the ridge should keep PoPs nil to very
low until it flattens and gets pushed east by Sunday.

The next chance for showers and storms is forecast on Sunday ahead
of this next cold front. While certainly welcome rain given
ongoing drought conditions, significant rainfall accumulation is
not expected. By the time the front approaches our local area, the
parent trough has already begun to rotate off to the northeast and
lessen its influence. Therefore, while the front is still likely
to make it through our area, we`re not really expecting heavy
rainfall or severe weather to accompany it at this time. Unless
significantly more rain becomes forecast, this front is also not
likely to make any meaningful dents in the worsening drought.

Dry and cooler conditions are once again forecast Monday onward
in the wake of the front with both lows and highs knocked down a
few degrees. Another front may approach late in the period, but
confidence is low on the timing and whether or not enough moisture
will be present to squeeze out any rain with it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Low-level northeast flow with nighttime decoupling will continue for
another 24 hours. The seabreeze this afternoon will likely get just
far enough inland to affect ECP for a few hours.

The mid-upper level air mass will remain very dry, so daytime
thermal lift will only be adequate to generate fair weather cumulus.
Otherwise, went with a persistence forecast for near-sunrise BR at
VLD, meaning the latest TAF is forecasting the same thing on
Thursday morning as what happened this morning. Other terminals will
have no early morning visibility restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Gentle to moderate northeast breezes induced by building surface
high pressure north of the waters will make for favorable boating
conditions through Thursday. The nearshore afternoon sea breeze
could interrupt the northeast winds. An increase in easterly flow
is likely by Friday which could lead to cautionary conditions
heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Dry and warm conditions prevail the next few days under persistent
northeast to easterly winds. Minimum relative humidities are
forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each
afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week
progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface
high pressure. However, critical fire weather conditions are not
forecast to develop with relative humidities remaining above
criteria and winds relatively light. Our next chance of rain will be
late this weekend as a front moves through the area, but rainfall
amounts currently do not appear significant enough to ease current
drought conditions in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   60  87  62  83 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   64  86  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        59  87  60  84 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  86  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  85  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    58  86  59  84 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  81  68  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Oliver