082
FXUS62 KTAE 121306
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
906 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

 - Widespread low temperatures in the 50s the next few mornings.
   The first consecutive sub-60 degree days since early May for
   many.

 - A warm and dry forecast next week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Satellite and surface observations show a broad cutoff low slowly
rotating overhead with an attendant surface cyclone off the coastal
Carolinas. These features will keep conditions comfortably warm this
afternoon under a mix of sun and low-to-mid-level clouds. Winds will
also be notably lower out of the north at about 5-10 mph as the
tight pressure gradient has shifted well to our NW.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 70s to low
80s - warmest out west. Locations in/around the I-75 corridor are
likely to be on the cooler side thanks to lingering cloud cover and
low-end chances for light showers on the left periphery of the
aforementioned cyclone. Light to variable winds tonight set the
stage for decent radiational cooling. A blend of the MOS with sub-
NBM guidance yields widespread low to mid 50s for lows away from the
immediate coast heading into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

The upcoming work week will be defined by dryness and a warming
trend as stout upper ridge builds from Southern TX into the MS
Valley in response to the departing upper low & surface cyclone.
High temperatures rebound to the mid 80s with isolated upper 80s in
the latter part of the long-term period. However, low temperatures
are forecast to moderate more slowly since the dry airmass
reinforced by persistent northerly winds favors effective
radiational cooling via mostly clear skies amidst a decoupled
boundary layer. Inland readings in the 50s are expected Tuesday-
Wednesday-Thursday, then warm well into the 60s heading into next
weekend when surface high pressure pivots to the Western Atlantic.
Rain chances hold off just beyond this forecast cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

An ASCAT pass at 0226Z showed cautionary NE winds with borderline
advisory level values over Eastern Apalachee Bay. The Small Craft
Advisory was allowed to expire at 2AM EDT across all waters.

CWF Synopsis: Gentle to moderate northerly breezes induced by
building surface high pressure will make for favorable boating
conditions the next several days. Afternoon seabreezes prompt an
onshore flow along the nearshore legs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next 3 days under
persistent, but no-longer breezy northerly winds. Minimum RH is
forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area.
Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the upcoming week progresses
thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated over the next several days.
Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much
of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  55  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        81  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        80  52  84  54 /  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  56  83  56 /  10  10   0   0
Cross City    82  55  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  58  82  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3