763
FXUS62 KTAE 031731
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
131 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Dry air mass aloft with weak low to mid-level northeast flow
supporting some scattered cu today as the seabreeze gradually
works inland. Cannot rule out an isolated shower in the far
Southeast FL Big Bend. A comfortable afternoon and evening
away from the Gulf Coast with upper 50s/lower 60s dew points.
Tonight, some patchy fog is possible in the Suwanee Valley
around sunrise. On Thursday, the low to mid-level flow gradually
becomes more southerly with the seabreeze moving further inland.
PWATs along/south of I-10 will approach 1.5 inches, but lift
and instability is otherwise limited. Looking at some of the
CAMs, adjusted PoPs upward to include a chance of a shower and
slight chance of a tstorm mainly in the FL Big Bend south of
I-10 during the afternoon and evening. As mid-level heights
build, it will be notably warmer on Thursday with highs in
the low to mid-90s. Meanwhile, some turbulent mixing limits
afternoon/evening dew points to the lower and middle 60s away
from the Gulf Coast, so more humid compared to Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

With mid-level heights continuing to build and below average
chances of precipitation, highs will be above normal Friday
through Sunday with low to mid-90s away from the Gulf Coast.
With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, heat indices
approach 100F on Friday, then in the upper 90s to lower 100s
this weekend. The potential for advisory-level heat indices
AOA 108F on Saturday and Sunday remains low, around 30% attm.
A chance slight chance of a shower/tstorm in the FL Counties
Friday afternoon/evening with the seabreeze. This weekend,
bumped PoPs up to slight chance on Saturday and chance on
Sunday (mainly north of I-10) as PWATs gradually increase
and subtle shortwaves ripple through the westerly mid-level
flow. In fact, with the approaching front from the north on
Sunday, PoPs may be a bit conservative, but nonetheless we
have trended upward. Otherwise, some patchy fog is possible
around sunrise Friday in the Suwanee Valley, Southeast AL,
and the Eastern FL Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

A wet pattern is in store early next week as a front takes
up residence near the region with chances of showers and
thunderstorms each day. No flooding concerns for early in
the week - See the Hydrology section for more details. It
will be notably cooler with 85-90F temps away from the Gulf
Coast on Monday/Tuesday, although there is above average
uncertainty in highs with the front in the vicinity. It`s
possible some elevated rip current concerns develop by
Tuesday as easterly flow to north of the front increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Easterly winds around 5 kts today will veer SSW at ECP up to 10 kts
with the passage of the seabreeze. VFR conditions with only SCT050
cig coverage. VFR conditions continue overnight with the exception
of brief MVFR fog at VLD around sunrise; sufficient support in the
guidance to include a TEMPO. On Thursday, winds shift from easterly
to southerly with VFR conditions continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

The coastal waters will remain under the influence of a ridge of
high pressure to the lee of the Appalachians through early this
weekend. By late this weekend into early next week, a southward
moving front enters the waters, with a tightening gradient in
pressure as high pressure builds in from the north. Easterly winds
become southerly by each afternoon and the evening closer to the
coast as the seabreeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
will not increase until late this weekend or early next week.
Looking ahead, there is a 30% chance of reaching advisory-level
easterly winds by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Dry air mass in place with minimum afternoon RH in the mid-30s to mid-
40s 40s away from the Gulf Coast through Friday. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or thunderstorm Thursday and moreso Friday, mainly
Southeast AL and the FL Counties. Transport winds gradually shift from
easterly to southerly Thursday, then back to easterly on Friday, with
mixing heights topping out around 5,000 to 7,000 feet inland from the
Gulf Coast. The light nature of the transport winds on supports the
potential for pockets of low dispersion persisting through afternoons
on both Thursday and Friday in portions of the GA and FL Counties. Winds
will shift to a more southerly direction by the afternoon and evening
hours each day to the south of I-10 as the seabreeze moves inland.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Mainly dry weather until late this weekend or early next week as
a front approaches from the north, with the exception of an
isolated shower or thunderstorm prior to then with the seabreeze.
As such there are no hydro concerns through at least Tuesday.
By the middle of next week and beyond, WPC has noted a SLGT risk
of heavy precipitation in their hazards outlook, so there are
no hydro concerns until then.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  68  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
Panama City   89  71  90  73 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      89  66  92  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    91  69  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  87  71  87  74 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF