695
FXUS62 KTAE 011932
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
232 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5)
  late tonight through early Tuesday morning for portions of the
  Florida Panhandle and Southwest Big Bend, mainly near the coast.
  A tornado or two is possible in this area along with gusty winds.

- There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5)
  late Tuesday morning into the early afternoon for the Florida
  Big Bend. A tornado is possible in this area along with gusty
  winds.

- Beneficial rain is expected from late today through Tuesday. The
  heaviest amounts are most likely to the west of the Flint and
  Apalachicola Rivers where 1-2 inches are expected. A few small
  pockets that see thunderstorms will likely receive over 2 inches.

- Marine winds will increase today and tonight with hazardous
  conditions for small craft.

- There is a medium chance for additional beneficial rainfall over
  1 inch late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A positively tiled longwave trough will be out next weather maker
as a weak area of low pressure moves through the region tonight.
This will lift a warm front northward during the overnight hours,
followed by a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. In addition to some
beneficial rainfall northwest of the FL Big Bend (discussed in
more detail in the Hydrology section at the bottom), isolated
severe storms are likely from the Eastern FL Panhandle into the
Big Bend, especially near the coast, late tonight into Tuesday.

For thunderstorm potential, seasonably high deep layer shear will
be in place, and high low-level SRH in particular. Hi-Res guidance
continues to favor surface-based instability overlapping with the
aforementioned SRH. HREF continues to indicate the probability
for 60-65+ dew points highest along and south of I-10 in the FL
Panhandle and across much of Big Bend, where SB CAPE approaches
~500 J/kg as well tonight into Tuesday within the warm sector.
Given sufficient moisture along with aforementioned overlapping of
instability and shear, and modest buoyancy, a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) is in place for portions of
the Eastern FL Panhandle south of I-10 and the Southwest Big Bend.
Main threat window is late tonight into Tuesday morning, starting
1 AM to 6 AM ET along the coast then working inland w/ primary
threats a tornado or two and isolated damaging wind gusts. From
there, storms are expected to continue/reinvigorate into the FL
Big Bend/Southern tier of GA counties from late morning into the
early afternoon hours, where a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5) is in place on Tuesday. Similar
threats of a tornado and isolated damaging wind gusts exists,
although the environment will increasingly favor the latter wind
as low-level SRH gradually decreases.

Otherwise, cloud cover and rain/virga through the drier air mass
this Monday afternoon northwest of the FL Big Bend will result in
cooler high temps in the lower to middle 60s, closer to the 25th
percentile of guidance. Rising temperatures overnight with the
warm frontal passage will lead to a non-diurnal trend in values,
rising through the 50s north and 60s south. Patchy fog is also
likely Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-10 into Southeast AL and
Southwest GA. The guidance is too quick to exit precip Tuesday,
so the forecast PoPs reflect a lag of a few hours. Looking ahead
to Wednesday morning, a chilly air mass in the wake of the cold
front with lows in the 30s across much of the region leading to
cold weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A comparatively cool and dry day will characterize Wednesday as a
weak surface high swings to our north. Daytime high temperatures
will be in the mid-upper 50s in our northern counties and lower 60s
closer to the coast. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in
the mid-upper 30s across the region, with low 40s near the coast.

Thursday marks the beginning of an unsettled period as a pair of
disturbances brings more beneficial rainfall to the region. The
first disturbance arrives Thursday in the form of a shortwave trough
accompanied by a round of precipitation. Deterministic model
solutions differ somewhat on exactly how Thursday`s precipitation
event will evolve. The GFS keeps an axis of maximum rainfall well to
our west over Louisiana, with any measurable amounts confined only
to our northwestern counties. The ECMWF, on the other hand, blankets
much of the region in an even distribution of precipitation totals.
For now, forecast PoPs represent a blend of these solutions, with
precipitation in the forecast for all counties and a NW-SE oriented
gradient of maximum PoPs. By Friday, a weak gulf low will begin
slowly progressing eastward towards our area as it hugs the northern
gulf coast, bringing with it a large swath of rainfall before
exiting late weekend. At this time, severe weather appears unlikely
despite favorable kinematics as the warm front struggles to advance
northward, limiting destabilization. It should be noted that the
exact evolution of these systems is subject to some inherent
uncertainty due to the forecast time range. As we get closer to the
event and into the range of our CAMs, the spatial distribution,
intensity, and timing of precipitation will become much clearer.
Still, current guidance indicates at least a medium (~40-50%) chance
of >1.0" of rainfall through the weekend, with locally higher
amounts possible - welcome totals given the background drought
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Primarily VFR currently with one batch of rainfall moving towards
northeast Florida. Conditions will deteoriate over the next few
hours towards MVFR and gradually IFR beginning this evening as rain
and showers develop over the Gulf waters and move inland.
Synoptically, low pressure will move through the northern Gulf today
and move inland into the Florida panhandle and move east Tuesday. If
instability can increase through the Florida counties as the low
tracks inland, TSRA would become possible from ECP-TLH-VLD Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, RA will prevail. Low level jet will increase
overnight to 40-50 knots leading to LLWS across the sites after 06Z
through 12-14Z. Mostly IFR overnight with some gradual improvement
to MVFR at our southern sites while IFR will continue beyond this
TAF cycle at DHN-ABY. East winds will gradually turn west and
northwest behind the departing low pressure area and associated cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rain overspreads the coastal waters from west to east tonight
as fresh breezes necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for the
waters west of Apalachicola to the Okaloosa-Walton County line,
while Small Craft Should Exercise Caution east of Apalachicola to
the Suwanee River through Tuesday; there is a medium chance that
the Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended to encompass
waters east of Apalachicola tonight into Tuesday. Low pressure
nearing the waters will lift a stationary frontal boundary
northward as a warm front tonight with winds becoming southerly,
then clocking around to northwesterly on Tuesday as the low moves
away from the waters. In the meantime, strong thunderstorms are
likely late today into Tuesday, leading to briefly higher winds
and seas, as well as a potential for waterspouts. Patchy fog is
also expected for the cooler shelf waters of Apalachee Bay late
tonight into Tuesday. Tranquil boating conditions are expected to
return by Wednesday and continue into Thursday. The approach of
the next storm system increases winds Thursday night into Friday
with a 30 percent chance of advisory-level conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

A wetting rain is expected to spread across the region tonight
and gradually end from west to east on Tuesday. The main fire
weather concern are continued pockets of low dispersion across
the region into Tuesday afternoon, before a cold front sweeps
from west to east across the region. Looking ahead to Wednesday
and Thursday, a dry period of weather with a 20% probability of
elevated fire weather concerns due to low afternoon RH, mainly
Southwest GA and the FL Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1142 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rain overspreads portions of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle
into the Flint River Valley GA this Monday afternoon then across
the remainder of the region tonight into Tuesday. Amounts will
generally range from 1 to 2 inches from the Flint River Valley GA
into Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle with up to 1 inch in the FL
Big Bend; a reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile) adds
about 1 inch to these amounts where thunderstorms occur. Overall,
the most beneficial rains in terms of possibly dialing back the
drought a bit are expected to remain northwest of the FL Big Bend.
The aforementioned amounts may lead to poor drainage flooding,
especially urban areas, as water will not readily absorb into dry
soil and runoff quickly, which may also create some slick spots
on roads due to oil build up.

Brisk onshore flow from tonight into Tuesday leads to increasing
water levels along the Apalachee Bay coast. Given we`re on the
descending end of the astronomical tide cycle (between the new and
full moon) and winds are already clocking around to offshore
prior to the higher of the mixed semidiurnal tides Tue afternoon,
water levels may reach action stage, but are expected to remain
below the minor flood threshold.

Looking ahead, another system may impact the region at the end of
the week with a 40-50% chance of an additional 1 inch or greater.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  62  71  38 /  40  80  80   0
Panama City   70  61  71  38 /  70  90  60   0
Dothan        65  56  63  33 /  50 100  70   0
Albany        66  56  65  32 /  30  90  80   0
Valdosta      70  59  71  36 /  40  80  80   0
Cross City    77  62  76  41 /  20  50  60   0
Apalachicola  69  64  73  41 /  50  70  60   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ108.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST
     Tuesday for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF/Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF