321
FXUS62 KTAE 081353
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
953 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Forecast is on track with minimal updates needed. Added 20% rain
chances later this afternoon in the southeast Big Bend as recent
high res guidance is depicting a few showers developing in
easterly low level flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Above average temperatures are forecast today and into tonight in
advance of an approaching cold front across the southeast. Dry
conditions should mostly prevail across the region this afternoon
but a few spotty showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible
across our southeast AL counties. These will be in response to a
weak shortwave trough and frontal boundary taking advantage of the
warmer and muggier conditions in place. This front should linger
or slowly sag southward overnight into Thursday morning. This
could allow our northern counties in AL/GA to see isolated
showers lingering as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

As a large CONUS trough across the northeast US exits the eastern
seaboard and helps bring a sprawling surface high southward, a
secondary shortwave will drop into the southeast on Thursday. As
the front/surface-high push into the region from the northeast and
the shortwave moves overhead, isolated to scattered showers and
potentially a few thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon and
evening hours, especially across our Florida counties where better
low-level instability is forecast. Expect strengthening
northeasterly flow through the day, especially for our Georgia
counties along the I-75 corridor. Temperatures will vary quite a
bit with thicker cloud cover and a cooler airmass keeping
conditions in the upper 70s across areas like Tifton. For
locations where the front will take longer to reach, like across
many of our Florida counties, temperatures should climb into the
upper 80s. However, northeasterly flow can often be a challenging
forecast regime for the region so it wouldn`t be surprising if
forecast temperatures are too high but this will largely depend
on the speed of the backdoor cold front.

The shortwave will amplify and strengthen into the Friday as a
strong surface low begins to develop off the eastern coast of
Florida, while no direct impacts (rainfall) are expected from this
feature, it will help keep breezy northeasterly winds in place
along with drier and cooler conditions across the forecast area.
Additionally, strong winds over our waters will create hazardous
seas into the weekend for any boaters.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

The strong surface low off the east coast of Florida and upper
level low will likely quickly depart the region over the weekend
and upper level ridging is forecast to build across the Gulf Coast
states. After a cooler weekend, conditions should warm back up
into the mid 80s by the early part of next week. Dry conditions
are forecast to continue with no significant chance for rainfall
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Stratus with low cigs and LIFR/VLIFR is moving in from the
northeast affecting VLD currently. It`s possible that MVFR/IFR
conditions will stretch as far west as ABY/TLH from 11z to 13z
but confidence is lower so have left these restrictions in tempo
groups. Guidance quickly scours this out by 13-14z and VFR
conditions are expected thereafter. Isolated TSRA is possible late
in the afternoon and evening near DHN, ABY, and ECP. Have added a
PROB30 to each of these sites to account for this possibility.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

East to northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
A backdoor cold front will move through the area on Thursday
evening, bringing with it an increase in northeast winds over 20
knots with small craft advisory conditions expected. There is a
10 to 20 percent chance of gale force gusts. These hazardous
conditions will likely last through at least Saturday with
conditions expected to begin improving beginning Sunday and into
next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the week with
chances for wetting rains remaining low to near-zero through the
remainder of the week. The only chance for rain will be isolated
to scattered showers across southeast Alabama this afternoon, and
again on Thursday across our southern Georgia and Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend counties as a front approaches. As a
frontal system moves through Thursday afternoon, expect breezy
northeast winds to develop. These will last into the weekend which
could increase fire weather concerns somewhat. However, at this
time, critical fire weather concerns aren`t forecast to develop.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 103 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon and
again on Thursday but rainfall amounts are not forecast to be
significant enough to cause any issues and drought conditions will
persist.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   89  71  84  63 /  10  20  20  10
Panama City   88  72  86  64 /  20  10  20  10
Dothan        88  68  80  60 /  20  20  20   0
Albany        88  68  78  59 /  20  20  10  10
Valdosta      89  70  80  61 /  20  20  20  10
Cross City    90  69  86  66 /  20  20  20  10
Apalachicola  84  72  84  66 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs