644
FXUS62 KTAE 161508
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1108 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A broad area of low pressure associated with Invest AL93 is
currently located near Panhandle coast, probably close to Cape
San Blas. This broad low is gradually pushing off to the west.
NHC continues to outlook a medium chance (40 percent) of tropical
development, though the window of opportunity for this to occur
near our forecast area has passed. So if tropical depression
development were to occur, it would occur west of our region, i.e.
over toward the MS and LA coast.

Regardless of development, low-mid level southerly flow will
increase through about Thursday morning as the broad eastern
periphery of this sytem passes across the region. This will push
quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity from off the Gulf
and into coastal communities. Inland of the coast, we will get a
more common late morning through early evening blossoming of
convection in the very moist air mass.

1 to 3 inches of rain will be common over the next 24 hours.
High-end rainfall of 3 to 5 inches for a coastal community. This
would bring the nuisance variety of flooding. If we start to get
consensus on where some of the highest-end rainfall is likely to
occur, then a targeted Flood Watch could be needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

A weak tropical disturbance will continue to move westward through
the area today. Most of the convection has remained offshore during
the overnight hours. As the system continues moving westward, bands
of showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the system are
expected to develop across the area with southerly flow. Pockets of
locally heavy rainfall are possible, especially near the coast.
Overall, the threat of flooding is non-zero, but so far it looks too
isolated to warrant any flood watches. The best chance at seeing
heavy rain will probably occur from mid-morning into early afternoon
across the coastal areas and extend inland across the Florida
panhandle and big bend. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler
today with the cloud cover and early start to convection.

For tonight, a few bands of showers and thunderstorms may linger on
the east side of the system near the coast with southerly flow.
Overnight lows will remain muggy in the mid 70s, except upper 70s to
near 80 along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

On the backside of the tropical disturbance as it progresses
west, southeast flow will be in place Thursday and PWATs will be
in excess of 2 inches for most locations with likely to
categorical pops in place, highest south of I10 and west of the
Apalachicola river to 50% from Albany to Valdosta and north from
there. Highs will generally be in the low to mid 90s with mostly
cloudy skies and scattered showers and storms.

Beginning Friday into the weekend, the subtropical ridge builds into
the southeast US from the east as the disturbance becomes
absorbed in the flow. Each day gets a little warmer while rain
chances slightly decrease. PWATs decrease to under 1.7 inches by
Sunday as drier air becomes more evident in the column above 700
mb as the ridge builds west into the ArkLaTex. This will allow
less coverage of convection, better low level mixing and higher
afternoon temperatures towards the upper 90s. Heat advisories may
be back in play in portions of the area beginning this weekend
depending on how much mixing takes place each afternoon.

Heading into the next work week, a weakness off the east coast may
allow tropical moisture to wrap southwest back across the area with
PWATs increasing back up to over 2 inches. If this occurs, rain
chances appear to increase back to likely which will serve to break
the heat from the weekend with increased convection coverage and
high temps back into the mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

An unsettled pattern looks to continue today as a tropical
disturbance (AL93) pushes westward through the area. Pockets of MVFR
ceilings are expected this morning with VFR ceilings this afternoon.
However, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are also
expected to develop across the area today, most concentrated around
TLH and ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

An area of low pressure will track westward today through the
Florida panhandle or just offshore. Winds will turn southerly as the
low moves by, with increasing winds and seas as a result. Cautionary
conditions east of Apalachicola today and all waters tonight into
Thursday night with advisory conditions possible. Beginning Friday
and into the weekend, high pressure builds across the Gulf waters
with winds and seas becoming favorable with wind speeds of 5 to
10 knots and seas of 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Humidity and rain chances will keep fire weather concerns to a
minimum for the next several days other than the potential for some
high dispersions.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 158 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025

WPC continues the marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the
southern half of the area and especially in coastal areas for the
next several days.

The low pressure area will continue westward through Thursday with
winds turning more onshore and PWATs in excess of 2 inches. 1-3
inches of rainfall, with the higher side of the range closer to
the coast, appears reasonable from WPC. This will lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have
received recent heavy rains as well as any training or slower
moving storms.

As the subtropical ridge builds in for the weekend and PWATs begin
to decline, rain chances decrease and thus coverage of rainfall
will lower as well, though this may be shortlived as moisture
increases again at the beginning of the next work week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   88  75  91  76 /  80  20  90  10
Panama City   88  78  89  79 /  90  50  90  40
Dothan        89  75  92  74 /  80  10  80  10
Albany        91  74  94  74 /  60  10  60   0
Valdosta      93  74  95  76 /  70  10  60  10
Cross City    91  73  93  74 /  80  40  80  20
Apalachicola  86  79  87  80 /  90  60  90  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Haner
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM....Scholl
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Scholl