405
FXUS62 KTAE 071819
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
219 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

 - Above average temperatures and humidity will continue through
Wednesday with heat index values reaching the mid to upper 90s in
the afternoon.

 - Hazardous boating conditions will develop Thursday evening and
last through at least Saturday with northeast winds in excess of 20
knots.

 - Drought relief is not anticipated with widespread rain not
expected through the next seven days.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

An upper level ridge currently over the region will weaken over the
next 24 hours as an upper level trough and surface cold front
approach from the north. A few showers or thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the area, but
significant rainfall is not expected. High temperatures will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows
in the mid 60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

By Thursday and Thursday night, the cold front will be on the
doorstep with stronger northeasterly flow expected across the area
as surface high pressure begins to build in from the northeast. This
is a cold air damming pattern, so we went on the lower side of
guidance for high temperatures across the northern portions of the
forecast area for Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
remain possible along the front, but rain chances are only around 20
percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

By Friday, the cold front is expected to have pushed through the
area with cooler and drier air in its wake. Further east, a coastal
low along the mid-Atlantic coast will reinforce the northerly flow
across our region. This should also allow cooler temperatures back
into the forecast with many locations likely seeing overnight lows
drop into the 50s by Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

MVFR cigs slowly lift/scatter out to VFR by late afternoon and
early evening from southeast to northwest across the terminals.

Confidence is increasing in another round of fog and low clouds at
ABY and VLD late tonight into Wed morning, and guidance is leaning
toward lower restrictions compared to Tue morning. For now, have
included TEMPO groups for LIFR at ABY/VLD, which may go prevailing
if confidence/duration increases. At this time, most guidance does
not bring low clouds/fog further southwest into DHN/ECP/TLH, but
cannot rule it out and the guidance may trend up. Otherwise, VFR.

East-Northeast winds around 5-10 kts through the period, becoming
southerly late this aftn/eve with the seabreeze passage at ECP.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

East to northeast winds will continue for the next several days.
A backdoor cold front will move through the area on Thursday
evening, bringing with it an increase in northeast winds over 20
knots with small craft advisory conditions. There is a 20 to 30
percent chance of gale force gusts. These hazardous conditions
will likely last through at least Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Mainly dry conditions are expected through the end of the week with
no widespread rain expected. As a frontal system moves through late
this week and into the weekend, breezy northeast winds are expected,
which could increase fire weather concerns somewhat. However,
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Significant rainfall is not expected over the next seven days, and
drought conditions will persist.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   70  90  71  86 /   0  10  10  20
Panama City   72  89  72  87 /  10  20  10  20
Dothan        69  88  69  80 /  10  30  10  20
Albany        68  88  70  75 /   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      68  89  70  80 /  10  10  10  20
Cross City    68  90  69  88 /  10  10   0  20
Apalachicola  73  84  72  84 /   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     FLZ108-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD