621
FXUS62 KTAE 211408
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1008 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the
  next couple days. Highs will be in the low 90s with peak heat
  indices up to the low 100s.

- Rain chances continue through Wednesday. Afternoon and
  evening thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds,
  frequent lightning, and small hail. An isolated severe gust or
  two are also possible.

- Notably cooler and drier weather more akin to early Autumn
  arrives later this week following frontal passage. Hazardous
  marine and beach conditions are likely starting Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The forecast is on track, so no updates are needed to the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The last day of the Summer Solstice will not feel like a
transition to fall thanks to an unseasonably warm/humid airmass
fostered by a lingering mid-upper low over the Eastern Gulf. This
feature should serve as a focus for another round of afternoon-
evening showers and thunderstorms.

The greatest convective potential is along/south of the I-10
corridor where prevailing NE winds converge with the Gulf coast
seabreeze. Atlantic seabreeze-driven convection also aims to push
westward into the Lower I-75 corridor down to the Eastern FL Big
Bend. We will also have to monitor trends across the Upper MS
Valley where a subtle shortwave acts as "wildcard" for
thunderstorms to our west/NW where an SPC Marginal Risk (level 1
of 5) stretches toward I- 85. The main threats are strong-gusty
winds (isolated severe downbursts possible), frequent lightning,
and small hail.

High temperatures are forecast to be around 90 degrees with heat
indices in the mid 90s to low 100s. Low temperatures drop to the
low 70s. These values are well above normal for late September.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The aforementioned mid-upper low loses definition on Tuesday as a
northern stream upper trough digs down to the OH-TN Valley. Rain
chances decrease in response with only isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms expected. Convective forcing should be
from the seabreeze and a pre-frontal surface trough from the NW.
The latter is attendant to an SPC Marginal Risk spreads into
I-185.

On Wednesday a front dropping in from the north serves as the
primary focus for convection. The highest rain chances are
along/NE of the I-10 corridor and the SE FL Big Bend. A
drying/cooling trend more akin to early Autumn ensues the
remainder of the forecast period following frontal passage as a
less humid airmass filters in via brisk NE winds.

High and low temperatures prior to the front are forecast to be
in the low 90s & low 70s - Tuesday through Thursday morning.
Thereafter, highs/lows drop to the 80s/60s, which are closer to
normal for the last week of September.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The main aviation concerns this TAF cycle are patchy fog/low
stratus early this morning and afternoon thunderstorms. Any
flt restrictions improve by about 13Z with VFR prevailing the
remainder of the period away from convection. The best potential
for convective impacts are TLH/VLD/ECP where PROB30s for TSRA are
in place 18-24Z. A NE wind is expected 5-7 kts. Storms diminish
after sunset, and winds go lgt/calm, thus openining window for
more patchy fog/low stratus, especially at VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Prevailing northeast winds are forecast outside of daily
afternoon seabreezes the next several days. Cautionary to perhaps
advisory level conditions arrive on Thursday following frontal
passage. Expect favorable boating through mid-week away from
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

The main fire weather concerns are daily afternoon scattered
thunderstorms the next 3 days. Gusty, erratic winds, frequent
lightning, and locally wetting rains are possible. Otherwise,
expect unseasonably hot conditions with peak heat indices in the
mid 90s to low 100s. Prevailing NE winds continue with a daily
afternoon seabreeze inducing a southerly wind shift.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

There are no significant hydrological concerns the next several
days. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing localized
nuisance flooding, or ponding of water. Dry weather is expected
late this week following frontal passage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  73  91  74 /  30  10  20  10
Panama City   90  75  91  75 /  50  20  20  10
Dothan        91  71  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
Albany        92  72  92  72 /  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      91  72  91  72 /  30  10  20  10
Cross City    90  73  90  73 /  40  20  30  20
Apalachicola  86  75  87  76 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3