919
FXUS62 KTAE 311736
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
136 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

There is a stationary front to our south in the northern Gulf that
is expected to slowly drift further south in time. This, along with
upper level troughing, will keep precip to our south over the marine
zones. Northeasterly flow at the surface, due to surface high
pressure along the Apalachians, will limit the seabreeze to the
coast today. PoPs are highest for the extreme SE Florida Big Bend at
40-60 percent. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s this afternoon
and cool to the upper 60s tonight.

The upper level troughing extends south on Monday; which will push
the stationary boundary further south into the Gulf. This will also
lower PoPs from the coastal regions with about a 30-40 percent
chance for showers/thunderstorms in the southeast Big Bend. High
temperatures on Monday will be in the upper 80s. Northeast flow
continues with speeds of around 10-15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Mid-level troughing is forecast to remain in place over the
eastern CONUS through much of the upcoming week before gradually
beginning to lift northward. Generally dry offshore flow is
expected to continue for the most part this week, keeping the
forecast relatively warm and dry. A few showers and storms will be
possible each afternoon, but offshore flow should keep them
confined pretty close to the coast. A dry reinforcing front could
push through the area mid to late week, but not much meaningful
change is expected to be felt from it. Fairly seasonable
temperatures are expected with highs in the 80s warming to the
low/mid 90s by mid to late week. Low temperatures similarly start
out in the mid 60s to near 70 before gently warming into the upper
60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Showers with maybe a few rumbles of thunder may be possible around
the VLD terminal tomorrow afternoon but, confidence is too low at
the moment to include into the TAF. Northeast flow will continue
through the period with winds around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

A frontal boundary over the nearshore waters will continue to
settle further south into the Gulf into Tuesday. Northeasterly
winds will be light through the rest of the day today but will
likely increase tonight into Tuesday as the pressure gradient
tightens. This could lead to periods of cautionary or advisory
conditions, especially in the Gulf waters west of Apalachicola.
The frontal boundary moves east Wednesday with winds decreasing
and becoming generally westerly later in the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As we head into the start of the week, drier air moves in. However,
RH values are expected to remain well above critical with MinRH
around 40 to 50 percent. Northeast flow will prevail through the
week with speeds around 10-15 mph for the Transport winds on Monday,
then decreasing to 5-10 mph for the rest of the week. Dispersions
for Monday will be high for many districts in the FL Panhandle, Big
Bend, and AL Wiregrass regions. Fair to moderate afternoon
dispersions can be expected afterwards into midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Sun Aug 31 2025

As the frontal system slides south the higher rainfall totals will
move south with it. Some rain is possible across the southeast Big
Bend this afternoon but rainfall totals will be light and no
hydrological concerns are anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  86  66  88 /  10  10   0  10
Panama City   71  89  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Dothan        65  86  62  87 /   0   0   0  10
Albany        65  86  63  87 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      67  86  64  88 /  10  10   0  10
Cross City    71  88  69  90 /  30  30   0  30
Apalachicola  72  87  71  85 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM CDT Monday
     for GMZ751-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs